Chinese Copper Futures Market Bubble Of The Existence Of Empirical Analysis

Bubble is a normal phenomenon in economic development.Many scholars do research on the economic bubble,such as stock market bubble,real estate bubble.They study it from many points:definition of bubble,bubble's categorize, the reason of bubble,the influence of bubble etc.However,few works are done for futures market bubble.There are still some issues whether bubble exists in futures market.China's futures market has developed more than 20 years and more and more futures species can be traded.The big fluctuate of the futures price and the trade mechanism that is different with stock market attact more and more investors invest the futures market.Moreover, enterprises gradually knows the functions of futures market, hedging the product and raw material by using the futures market.All of these make the two base function of futurss market—hedging and price discovering available. Futures become more and more important in the development of nation economy.The copper futures is the most active futures species in China ShangHai Futures Exchange is the second bigger copper futures exchange in the world. Whether the copper futures market includes bubble or not is important to copper consumer, productor and the exceutive's benefitThis article reviews the achievement of history research,then sum up the bubble theory and dissertate whether the futures will grow bubble or not.after of this, the method of testing bubble is summed up. Few of methods is chosed that is adjusted to the futures market。The duration dependence test is used to detect the copper futures market bubble. The result is that there are bubbles discovered in copper futures market. Following of this, this article analyse the reason and the fluence of the bubble in futures market. Meanwhile, some suggestion is advanceed. Finally, the summary of the full text is done and the question needed to study is metioned.