The Research On The Bubble Of The Soybean Futures Market In China

Economic bubble is a common phenomenon during the development of economy. Most scholars make efforts on the research of the bubbles, such as real estate bubble, and they also explore the definition, factors and classifications of the economic bubble. However, there are less researches or studies on the economic bubbles of futures market and no conclusions on the existence of the bubbles.Up to now, Chinese futures market has developed for more than twenty years and various products of futures attract more attentions of investors. Investors begin to focus on the price differences between futures markets and stock markets. In addition, enterprises understand the specific functions of futures market little by little and then make use of the hedging of raw materials and finished goods, thereby giving full play to the functions of futures market, that is, price discovery and hedging. With the development of the society, futures markets are more and more significant. Soybean futures market, as one of important futures markets, also imposes impacts on the social economy.First of all, on the basis of understanding history, the essay states the research achievements of futures, concludes the theories of economic bubbles, discusses the possibility of existence of futures market bubble, summarizes the inspection methods and points out a series of specific inspection methods, which are suitable for the application of futures market. And then, tests are carried out on the bubble soybean futures market by the method of continuous inspection period run length and the results indicates that the soybean futures market has a certain degree of the bubble. The essay does deep into the causes and effects of the bubble, at the same time, it puts forward some policy suggestions. Finally, upon the full text, the essay looks into the distance and also puts forward the issues to be advised.