| China's life insurance industry has been developed greatly since the recommencement in business in 1982 accompanying by rapidly accumulated premiums. However, China's life insurance industry exhibits an unbalanced development among the eastern, central and western region witch is primary influenced by the unbalance development of economy among these regions. Therefore it is necessary to make a profound analysis on the determinants of China and regional life insurance demand. In this thesis,9 explanatory variables is selected including GDP, interest rate, expected inflation rate, population, old people support rate, children foster rate, urbanization, education and social security. In addition, their long term and short term influences on China and regional life insurance demand are examined through panel multifactor models using the datum from China's 30 provinces during 1999-2009.Part one:theoretical deductionFirst, the definition and functions of life insurance, the connotation and theories of life insurance demand are introduced in this thesis. Second, using the existing domestic and foreign interrelated discussions for reference, the influences of several factors containing economy, demography, society, culture, regime on life insurance demand are discussed.Part two:empirical analysisIn order to examine the actual influences of the factors mentioned in theoretical deduction on China and regional life insurance demand, a comprehensive empirical analysis is used in this part. There are four steps:1. First, a panel multifactor regression model is established in which the independent variable is China life insurance and the dependent variables are GDP, interest rate, expected inflation rate, population, old people support rate, children foster rate, urbanization, education and social security. Second, in order to acquire a precise form of the model, several tests including fixed effects test, random effects test, unit root test and coefficient tests are performed to the model. Third, after obtain a precise model, the long-term effects of all dependent variables on the independent variable-China life insurance are examined through a regression.2. Based on the regression result of the former model, a corrected standard error model is established which is useful to test the short-term effects of the dependent variables on the independent variable.3. According to GDP per capita of each province, all the provinces are divided into three regions-eastern region, central region, western region. An empirical analysis including step1 and step2 are reused to each panel multifactor regression model in which the independent variable is regional life insurance and the dependent variables are GDP, interest rate, expected inflation rate, population, old people support rate, children foster rate, urbanization, education and social security. Through empirical analysis, the long-term and short-term effects of all dependent variables on the independent variable-regional life insurance are obtained.4. Through a comparison between the regression results of China life insurance demand and regional life insurance demand, a significant conclusion is derived.Part three:a discoveryThrough empirical analysis in part two, it is found out that there are both similarities and dissimilarities of determinants of life insurance demand between eastern region, central region and western region. Similarities:On one hand, both GDP and education exhibit a strong relationship with China and regional life insurance demand. On the other hand, both interest rate and children foster rate exhibit a weak relationship with China and regional life insurance demand. Dissimilarities:Either from short term or from long term, determinants of eastern regional life insurance demand exhibit a great difference with determinants of central and western regional life insurance demand. However, determinants of central regional life insurance demand exhibits a great similarity with determinants of western regional life insurance demand. From long term, expected inflation and old people support rate exhibit a strong relationship with eastern life insurance demand, while social security exhibits a strong relationship with central and western life insurance demand. From short term, old people support rate and education exhibit a strong relationship with eastern life insurance demand, while social security exhibits a strong relationship with central and western life insurance demand. This conclusion possesses of guidance to the development of China regional life insurance industry. |
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