Heavy-industrialization And Energy Intensity Research In Xinjiang

Energy intensity inverted U curve has been proved by Reddy and Goldenberg et al, with the western countries' empirical data.that is,with the processing of industrialization, energy intensity increase first and then drop down.The changes in energy intensity reflect the changes of energy efficiency.Therefore,the study on changes of energy intensity plays an importanr role in reducing energy intensity, saving energy, easing energy crisis for a country or region.As a high energy consumption industy, heavy industry has high energy intensity.The rising of heavy industy's proportion (heavy-industrialization) will undoubtedly increase the energy intensity.Heavy-industrialization is a stage of most countries or regions must go through,especially developing countries. To catch up with developed industrial countries,these countries often take the strategy of heavy industrialization. Practice shows that the heavy industry has made enormous contributions on the economic growth in these countries, but also brings tremendous waste of energy. Therefore, the extent and scale of heavy industry plays the biggest effect on the changes of energy intensity.To highlight the heavy industy's important effect,this article provides a new view, that is, it studies the energy intensity's trend in the process of heavy-industrialization.This article aims to demonstrate the energy intensity inverted U curve in the process of heavy—industrialization,with the relevant economic theory, statistics and econometric measurement.Firstly,using the relevant historical data of Xinjiang between 1952-2007.The artricle analysises the process of the heavy industrialization in Xinjiang in detail. The results shows that the industrialization of Xinjiang has entered the middle stage, and it is moving to the advanced stage.The proportion of heavy industy is increasing, and it has been the leading industy in Xinjiang. The heavy-industrialization has s significant increase.Secondly, The article analysises the trend of Xinjiang energy intensity. The statistical result proves that,with the rising of heavy-industrialization, the energy intensity increases first and then decreases,like inverted U curve.Again, the article analysises theoretically the relationship between heavy Industry and energy intensity inverted Ucurve.It pointes that, in the process of heavy-industrialitization, the shift of growth rate between GDP and energy consumption, changes in energy's market supply and demand, and the many factors' changes of affecting energy intensity lead to the periodically changes of energy intensity.Then, the article verifies the inverted U curve of energy intensity with the econometric method. This part, using Wald test, vertifies the Existence of energy intensity inverted U curve.and then builds a dynamic distributed lag model, eatablish the long-term equilibrium relationship between heavy-industrialization and energy intensity. Results show that, from 1952 to 2007 in Xinjiang, the increase in the proportion of heavy industry has drive the energy intensity increasing. At the same time, the change of technological development and other factors explains the decline of energy intensity in 1977.Finally, make conclusions.Based on the conclusions, the suggestions that aims lower the energy intensity of Xinjiang will be proposed and then it points out the inadequacies of this article, these deficiencies will be the breakthrough points of future research.