A Study Of Hubei Province Energy Intensity Change Factors

Energy, as an essential key element for social and economic development ofcountry or regions, has been highly valued by government at all levels. Hubei provinceis located in China’s heartland, has obvious location advantages. However, Hubeiprovince lacks of various resources such as coal, oil, and gas, although it is rich inwater resources, the exploitation has already approached saturation. Energy plays animportant role in the economic development of Hubei province, the lack of energyresults in the huge resources input from other provinces. The historical data indicatethat the energy self-supply rate of Hubei province is always very low. Hubei is a heavyindustry developed province with an irrational industrial structure, mostly relying onthe coal resource. Due to the characteristics of coal resources and the lag of energysaving technology, efficiency of coal energy is lower than oil and natural gas.Moreover, because coal can not be burn enough, a large number of carbon dioxide andother harmful gases have been discharged, causing severe environmental pollution anddamaging the ecological environment. In addition, Hubei province is a populousprovince, the urban population increases with the development of economic, thedemand of land resources and high energy consuming products like cars and electricalequipments is bigger and bigger, resulting in a higher proportion of the daily lifeenergy consumption to the total energy consumption. Because the consciousness ofenergy saving can not keep up with the levels of material development, energyconsumption level gets higher and the quality of living environment decreases. Thus, itcan be seen that energy bottleneck effects, as well as the contradictions between supplyand demand in Hubei province, are increasingly prominent.In2007, China realized that the development of the central region is of greatsignificance to the healthy and stable development of our whole economy, the “centralrise” strategy had been therefore started for supporting and promoting the economicdevelopment of the six provinces in central China. It has been proved that Hubei, as the economy center and the transportation hub, enjoys a vital position in central China.During the "eleventh five-year plan" period, Hubei province has made greatachievements with a13.9%average annual growth of GDP, which wins the first placein the six provinces in central China and ranks in the nationwide top10of regionaleconomic strength. Among them, the industry has made undeniable contributions; datashows that industrial added value that above Hubei designated size increases from230.3billion Yuan in2006to613.6billion Yuan in2010and its proportion in GDPraises from30.2%to38.8%. With the implementation of “central rise” strategy,contradictions between the economic growth and energy supply in Hubei province willbe deepening. Facing the problems such as nervous energy supplies, low energyefficiency, irrational industrial structure and the weak consciousness of energy saving,only solves the energy problem effectively can Hubei province gain the newopportunity for the scientific and the great-leap-forward development. Therefore, it isnecessary to study the energy problems in Hubei province, so as to ensure its soundand good economic sustainable development.The energy intensity which measures the unit power level is studied in this paper.Firstly, the causes of energy constraints in Hubei province and the influencing factorsare explored by analyzing the present situation of the energy consumption. Secondly,the energy intensity over the years is calculated from energy data during1990-2010,which shows that the energy intensity in Hubei province is reducing year by year.Against this occurrence and for finding out the influence factors that cause the drop ofenergy intensity, index decomposition methods for the energy intensity analysis arecompared, then completely factor decomposition method is chosen to divide the energyintensity in Hubei province to industrial structure factors and industrial energyefficiency factors, studying how these two factors influence the energy intensityrespectively. After analysis we find out that the increase of industrial energy efficiency,especially in the key industries efficiency, contributes greatly to the decrease of energyintensity in Hubei. Based on the results above, the grey forecasting model and the curve fitting model are selected to predict the time sequence of energy intensity,exploring the tendency of its changes in Hubei province. Finally, the importantinfluence factors of energy intensity in Hubei province in respect of energy, economy,ecology, etc. are found out, some related policy suggestions adapt to the situation inHubei province are given, including the aspects such as the production factors,industrial structure and efficiency, consciousness of saving energy and energy pricesystem. Through the analysis in this study, it comes to the conclusions as below: on theone hand, Hubei province should take effective measures to ensure the supply ofenergy resources, promoting the economic development; on the other hand, we shouldstrive to develop the third industry, meanwhile speed up the upgrade of second industry,especially the high-tech and low-consumption industries, phase out rough machiningand high-consumption industries, thus stabilize the basic role of the first industry.Besides, we should raise the consciousness of energy saving and establish a low carbonenvironment, not only for completely solving the contradictions between energy supplyand demand, but also for providing a beneficial social and political environment for thescientific and great-leap-forward development of Hubei province, ensuring itseconomic growth with a gently energy consumption growth and reduced energyintensity.In short, this study provides some methods and policy suggestions for reducingenergy intensity, verifying the energy development direction and breaking energyconstraint in Hubei province. The paper is very practical and has a theory value andpractical significance.