Research On The Relationship Between China Metal Futures Price Index And Ppi

Futures index in the national economy functions as a warning device and it has been regarded as an early warning indicator of inflation abroad. With the constant development of China's economy, futures market has become important part of China's economy. Especially since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained a high growth rate, which attracted worldwide attention. In particular, in recent years, China earned a strong momentum of development after its macro-economy overcomes the world financial crisis, and on the meanwhile Chinese futures exchange has entered a new period of rapid development. With the increasing regulation and development of Chinese futures market, futures market has played an increasing key role in the financial markets, and its leading role for macro-economy is also more and more enhanced. Futures index has the reference value for central bank observing inflation and adjusting monetary and banking policy. This article prepares and calculates the index of futures price of metals, and by the Granger test with PPI, we clear its forecasting function for PPI and make relevant policy recommendations.At first, this paper reviews some domestic and foreign research on index of commodity futures price; and secondly, we introduce relative theory about index of commodity futures price and the basic situation of Chinese futures market and its development, of which we emphasize the role of financial future prices and macro-economy. And then, introduce the main index of future price popular at home and abroad and its methodology. Then, with the reference of mature experience from abroad and taking into account domestic research, bring out the overall design and operation concept of Chinese index of futures price of metals, and systematically research on variety, weight and preparation method of Chinese index of future prices of metals. Finally, we choose the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper, aluminum and zinc as the object, and prepare the index of futures price of metals, and verify the causal relationship between it and the PPI. Further demonstrates the role of index of futures price of the metal as an economic leading indicator for economic forecasts, and its importance for Chinese national economic development.