The Early-warning System Of Town Real Unemployment

With the continuous deepening of economy reform, the employment situation of China is grave. The unemployment is serious problem day by day. Abundant unemployment blocks the economy development and affects the stability of state. To build the unemployment alarm system, which is based on the real situation and the historic data and by systemic and scientific means is of most importance. To build the unemployment alarm system can provide auxiliary information and policy support for industry policy adjusting and economic development.The paper builds the town unemployment alarm system by econometric model based on the existing data and builds the model of the actual rate of town unemployment, the new agriculture labor force and the third industry by co-integration and error correcting model. It will be used to forecast the short-term rate of town unemployment in 2003. Then the article makes the long-term forecast on the new agriculture labor force and the third industry index by ARIMA. The rate of unemployment is forecasted accordingly. The final conclusion is as follows: The rate of unemployment will reach 0.11 in 2007 in case we will not take the proper measures. The alarm line is built by integrated weighed method in full consideration of the international stand together with the existing situation of China. Then we find the rate of unemployment of China is in intermediate area after division. It is urgent time to take the measures. Finally I put forward some suggestion and solution.