Analysis And Forecasting On The Dynamic Evolution Of The Urban's Domestic Tourism Demand Of Tianjiin

From the urban point of view of domestic tourism demand, the paper analyzes the dynamic evolution and the scale of future development of the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin by using the methods of grey dynamic analysis,regression prediction,grey prediction,combined forecast,weight-varying combination of forecast models and so on, so to explain the internal causes and development of domestic tourism demand of the urban residents in Tianjin, and then propose the corresponding development of countermeasures.First of all, the paper gives a summary described of the background,the significance of this research, and the domestic and international research status on the tourism demand, and at the same time conceptually defines the urban residents,the tourism demand and the tourism consumption demand, so to make the main target of this research clearly, meanwhile, reviews the research papers′basic related theories, so to lay the theoretical foundation for quantitative analysis of the follow-up article.Secondly, the paper analyzes the development status and dynamic evolution of the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin. By collecting the related statistical data, the paper analyzes the development status of the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin qualitatively, and based on the past research results of other scholars the paper constructs a dynamic mechanism description model on the evolution of the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin, then with the grey dynamic analysis gives a comprehensive dynamic analysis on the demand evolution trend of its own, so to reveal the internal development causes and the evolution features of the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin.Thirdly, predicted the scale of the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin. At first, the paper achieves the prediction work from multiple angles, and then by using the combined forecast and the weight-varying combination of forecast models the paper gives a further more analysis on the results of each single prediction, thereby to enhance the feasibility of the forecasting results.Finally, the paper provides a series of strategies to enhance the urban residents′domestic tourism demand in Tianjin, such as: promote the role of the government to advantage the development of the"direct pulling power",key dependent on the mass consumer source markets, actively promote the development of the leisure and entertainment tourism, further develope the target markets and so on, so to promote the travel and tourism industry having a sound and rapid development.