Uncertainty Of The Emerging Technology-based Risk Analysis And Countermeasures Study

The high uncertainty of emerging technologies mainly in three areas: First, the uncertainty in the market, some emerging technologies with the outbreak of the market while other emerging technologies may not be accepted by the market; Second, the technical uncertainty, as mainly demonstrated by the success of research and development in emerging technologies uncertainty, the success time of the research and development in emerging technologies is uncertain, the commercial success of emerging technologies is uncertain; Third, management uncertainty. Emerging technologies unusual high-risk, high degree of uncertainty and ambiguity has brought new challenges to traditional management thinking, therefore, the effective management of emerging technologies is becoming key to the success of high-tech enterprises, which made it possible to study emerging technologies uncertainty is particularly important. In view of emerging technologies' uncertainty, this paper based on the quantitative aspects of the adoption and diffusion of emerging technologies, the technical risks of emerging technologies, emerging technologies investment risk evaluation, investment strategies and emerging technologies have done some research work, for details:First, basing on each phase of technology adoption life cycle, it imitates the variation of adopters' quantities and diffusion speed in the emerging technology market, using cumulative function and speed function of Logistic curve model, and analyzes adopters' attitudes towards risk in each phase of emerging technology adoption life cycle.Second, we divide technology adoption life cycle into n phases, basing on adopters' attitudes towards risk are different in each phase of emerging technology adoption life cycle, and suppose emerging technologies develop state obey placidity independence increase process, we demonstrate the decreasing law of adoptive technology risk and the increasing law of boundary risk by hour in each phase of emerging technology adoption life cycle, using risk metrical principle, and analyze adopters' adoptive technology risk making use of the various level of risk chart in each phase of emerging technology adoption life cycle.Third, considering the high-risk and high uncertainty of emerging technologies, it presents a systematic index system of risk evaluation for emerging technologies investment. Base on that, multi-hierarchy fuzzy synthetical evaluation models of risk that invested on emerging technologies are established by using fuzzy mathematical knowledge, so that investment enterprises have a comprehensive evaluation of various risks for investing in emerging technologies.Fourth, it provides an emerging technology investment model based on some literatures taking into account the strategic effects between enterprises. Some conclusions are obtained, including the option values of different conditions while two identical enterprises invest two future emerging technologies, using real options methods. Furthermore, the investment equilibrium strategy of two identical enterprises facing two future emerging technologies is analyzed by using option-game approach based on that option values.