| In the context of the post-financial crisis era, China economic development faces the dual pressure of industrial structure upgrading and economic developing mode converting, with the characters of technology innovation and strategic development potential, strategic emerging industries are the inevitable choice of industrial structure upgrading and economic endogenous developing, studying strategic emerging industries development has significant theoretical consequences and practical value. This paper presented the connotation, characters and category of strategic emerging industries based on literatures researching, and analyzed relative theories of strategic emerging industries development from the national views, regional government views and industrial views. Combining theory with practice, strategic emerging industries development status was analyzed to propose strategic emerging industries development problems:vague definition, irrational choice, deficient experience and disorder development. With the study object of strategic emerging industries development, the analytical framework was constructed based on the relationship analysis of central government, regional government and strategic emerging industries. With the research methods of subjective analysis and objective evaluation, system integration and decomposition, comparative analysis, induct and simulation, statistics analysis, this paper built the strategic emerging industrial evaluation system, studied the choice and layout of strategic emerging industries, analyzed the system operation logic of strategic emerging industries development, proposed policy suggestions, which provided theoretical reference and practical guidance for strategic emerging industries development.With the analysis of national intent of strategic emerging industries evaluation, regional dominant on strategic emerging industries selecting, and the systematicness of strategic emerging industries development, this paper revealed that strategic emerging industries development was system behavior linked with central government, regional government and industries themselves. Thus, the study logical framework was constructed with the main components of strategic emerging industrial evaluation system on central government level, strategic emerging industries choice and layout on regional government level, and strategic emerging industries development system analysis on industrial level. Firstly, the paper analyzed the "strategic space" and "emerging time" characters of strategic emerging industries from national intent, established the strategic emerging industries evaluation system with time-space dimensions based on AHP, evaluation exemplification was made with textile industry, IT industry, new energy automobile industry. Secondly, strategic emerging industries choice and layout should be considered with regional industrial development condition and regional competitive advantages analysis from regional view, the strategic emerging industries choice evaluation gray model was established, and the empirical study of strategic emerging industries choice and layout was made from the example of new energy automobile. Thirdly, the paper analyzed the strategic emerging industries development system integration and decomposition from industrial level, built strategic emerging industries developing system dynastic model, studied the influential factors and operation logic of strategic emerging industries development system based on empirical study of IT industry, the policy experiments results revealed that strategic emerging industries development is system dynamic behavior affected by multi-factors, as inner influential factor, enterprise innovation invest is the most significant factor for system development, which was proved by OLS estimation and VAR model, therefor, the effective way to accelerate strategic emerging industries healthy developing is strengthening independent innovation. Consequently, the strategic emerging industries development policy suggestions were proposed according to its nonlinear development life cycle:innovation stimulation and encourages were emphasized in incubation period, enhancing the independent development ability gradually in growing period, making impetus to industrial structure upgrading and economic development mode converting in mature period.The main conclusions include six items. First, strategic emerging industries development presents the logic relationships among central government, regional government and industries, which is system operation with multi-agents and multi-factors, strategic emerging industries development study should emphasize on its systematicness and dynamics. Second, strong national intent is linked with strategic emerging industries development, strategic emerging industries evaluation should be considered with national strategic intent, and underline the dual character of strategic and emerging. Third, strategic emerging industries choice and layout should consider the regional industrial development condition and regional competitive advantages analysis, the strategic emerging industries should be cultivated prior in the provinces with high selection coupling degrees and advantages, the middle selection coupling degrees provinces should be the reserves, while the low selection coupling degrees provinces with disadvantages should make prudent choice. Fourth, the strategic emerging industries development is the system behavior driven by multi-factors, accelerating strategic emerging industries developing should obey its inner logic, coordinate the system factors developing prior, and make external influence as supplement. Fifth, technology import and technology imitation are the short term effective factors for strategic emerging industries innovation and development, independent innovation invest is the significant factor for strategic emerging industries developing, accordingly, strengthening independent innovation, enhancing technical level is the effective way to accelerate strategic emerging industries developing. Sixth, strategic emerging industries development has its specific inner logic and external characters, strategic emerging industries development policy support system constructing should obey its nonlinear development life cycle, policies with differences are effective to promote sustained and healthy development of strategic emerging industries.The study innovation ideas are comprised of the follow aspects. Firstly, this paper constructed the study logical framework with main components of strategic emerging industrial evaluation system on central government level, strategic emerging industries choice and layout on regional government level, and strategic emerging industries development system analysis on industrial level, which provides study view with the linkage of the national, regional and industrial parts. Secondly, under the study logical framework, the strategic emerging industries evaluation system was established with the time-space dual dimensions evaluation idea based on AHP, what is meaningful to strategic emerging industries evaluation; the strategic emerging industries regional choice evaluation model was established based on gray theory, which is valuable reference for emerging industries regional choice and layout, it broke the regional single view limit; emerging industries development was put in a dynamic system with multi-agents and multi-factors, the system operation logic and development trace of strategic emerging industries were studied under the dynamic perspective. Thirdly, according to the nonlinear development life cycle of strategic emerging industries, combined with differential and multiple policies, policies support system was proposed, which reflected stereoscopic and dynamic policies support to strategic emerging industries development. |
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