Housing Mortgage Loans Early Repayment Of Behavioral Research

Advance payment of housing mortgage loans means the borrowers do not repay the loan according to the time and limit according to the contract signed, but repay part of or whole of the loan in advance. It exposes commercial banks to severe active default risk and has been a serious obstacle to the development of commercial banks in our country. In addition, it also makes the asset-backed securities of housing mortgage loans face more risk and prevents the actualization of mortgage loans'securitization. The advance payment of housing mortgage loans has been a puzzle faced by commercial banks in our country.There have been abundant research results in this area overseas, while in our country, for the lack of empirical data, researches in this area are still in the beginning stage. So, this paper at first puts forward the main factors influencing advance payment of housing mortgage loans in our country systematically and then makes a questionnaire to investigate the influence of the factors to advance payment of housing mortgage loans in Chengdu. This is meaningful for research in this area.This paper researches the borrowers'advance payment action deeply. It builds a decision model of advance payment; in addition, for the lack of historical data of advance payment, the prediction model in the paper isn't the statistical model sticking to long-term, macro advance payment rate but the analytical perdition model of advance payment rate in the short future sticking to one single loan. This model depends less on the historical data of advance payment, it mainly does the prediction according to external information of mortgage loan and internal characters of the borrowers. In this way it overcomes the difficulty of collecting data and is also convenient for commercial bank's operation which is the innovation in this area.