Empirical Study Of China's Listed Companies, Credit Rating

Credit risk is one of the most essential risks in financial institutions. Credit risk management has evolved dramatically over the last 20 years in response to the speedup of globalization of economy and finance. In some developed countries' commercial banks, the management system of credit risk develops quickly in terms of practice and theory, and more and more new techniques are used to analyze the credit risk. Comparatively, in our country, the credit risk management system is distempered and the simple technique is still used to manage the credit risk, which could not satisfy the need of the fast-developing commercial bank.Credit rating is a main method on measuring the credit risk of companies. The new Basel Accord issued in 2002 requires the bank to establish credit rating system firstly, so we can see the status of credit rating in credit management of banks. Simultaneously, in the process of credit management of ordinary companies for account sales, an accurate credit rating can always help them reduce the credit risk afterwards-management cost dramatically. Hence, credit rating also plays an important role in ordinary companies' credit management.In our country, listed companies are the most important part of the entire national economy. However, their credit risk is also enormous. Considering this situation, we should study the credit measurement and credit rating of listed company firstly if we want to improve the whole level of credit management in our country. Therefore, this paper will use listed companies as the study objects.After reviewing the development history of foreign and domestic credit risk measurement and management, introducing the credit risk evaluation models of every phrase, and summarizing the foreign and domestic literature in terms of credit rating evaluation techniques, this thesis chooses Factor Analysis and K-Means Cluster Analysis as the empirical study method. First, the author samples 307 listed company as the study objects, and establishes a financial index system coming from different aspects for credit rating. Then, on the basis of using Factor Analysis technique to study the sampled companies and financial ratios, this paper extracts several unfathomable common components from the financial index system and give each components a proper weighting coefficient so that we can calculate a compositive factor score. Next, after fixing on the rating number and studying the compositive factor score by the K-Means Cluster Analysis, this thesis sorts the sampled listed company into several parts according to their credit risk level and set up a credit rating criterion, which is a special credit rating technique established for our country's listed company. At the end of the empirical study, the author samples another set of listed company to test the credit rating model, which proves that this model could effectively identify the credit risk and forecast it.At last, in order to make sure that this credit risk model can be used flexibly by both commercial banks and common companies, the paper expound how to apply this rating model to commercial banks' credit risk management and common companies' credit risk management for account sales.