Empirical Analysis Of Price Cycle Fluctuations

As an important macroscopic economic indicator, the price has the inseparable relation with the macroscopic economical movement. It is "the display" which reflects the economical situation, also is "the regulator" which dispose market economical resources. The stabilize commodity prices also is one of macroeconomic policy goals which the each countrie's government pursues.In our country, after the implementation socialist market economy organizational reform, gradually bade farewell to the short economical time, along with the marketizement of the price step by step and deepgoing reform, the price fluctuation overall be obviously flatten out. On the other hand, because our country is occupying the transforming time, the system is insufficient and the economic structure is also insufficient These caused that the price fluctuation presented some structural characteristics,and the hidden danger of the inflation and the deflation simultaneously exist.This paper from macroscopic economical angle, use the Multivarate Time Series Variance Component Model generaly analysed that some kinds of factors influence the price fluctuation. As the result, the price fluctuation be mainly influenced by the factor of the macroscopic economical bussiness condition. In addition, the currency condition and the inhabitant's price anticipation also has the important influence to the price stability. But there are also has the factor which suppresses the price to rise in the economical movement.This paper has also constructed our country's price synthesis index system which includs the price coincident composite index and price leading coincident composite index. And use the price coincident composite index described the situation of the price fluctuation in recent years. Moreover, the price leading coincident composite index well leads to price consistent composite index. We might take it as an effective tool to determinate future price trend.In conclusion, at present, in our country the macroscopic economical situation is good, and it is very difficult to appear the serious deflation, but because the effective demand will be insufficient in the longer time, the overall situation inflation which be drawed by demand is difficult to occur. In the overall, the price can display in gentle in a longer time.In the short-term, our country's economy will face to the more inflation pressure, which comes from the demand increasing and raw material price rising. In the mid-term and long-term, the problem which comes from insufficiency of the effective demand and producing too much goods in some industries, also causes that economy faces to the certain deflation pressure.For the price's stability, we must make the safeguard with the macroscopic economical steady movement. The reform of the system has brought rarely time -"the high growth, the low bloating", so we should fully recognize the value of this time. On the other hand, at present, because every insufficient system causes that some unreasonable phenomenon appearanced, we should continue to reform the every organizational system and consummate the market mechanism, and make the price function display enough effect.