The Impact Of Rising Oil Prices On China's Economy

The significant of petroleum concerning the world Economic is unquestionable, the situation has been provided the case of the latter deeply world Economic depression which were caused by the crazy rising of 1970s's petroleum price. And now, The China Economic system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of china. Some Economist became to concern the impact effect which brought by the sudden rise or fall of the world price of the petroleum. How to analysis the impact by the way of quantity? The special characteristic of the CGE model really fit the requirement and has developed as the mainly tools on analysis of the problem of macroeconomic, which validity has been confirmed widely ,so this thesis use this tools to analysis the impact which are caused by the world petroleum price's rise. The CGE were proved as a kind of useful fix quantify tools which has been developed from 1960s, which took the Economy system as a whole and emphasized on the reciprocity and contact of the different section of a Economy system. The CGE model includes the agent and activity department, the description of market equilibrium and character of Macro-economy. It is suitable being used in analysis on the effect which are caused by the change of policy in Economy system, such as the difference of the inner of same department, the agent, and the efficiency or the out put. This thesis has constructed a CGE model based on the latest 2002 I-O table and successfully use it on the analysis the impact on the China Economy system which brought by the petroleum price inflation.From the result of the simulation under special policy,we can get the conclusion which are approximated with the general result being published and get the same conclusion from the result.The whole thesis are consist of seven chapter, which mainly include the description of the CGE model, the construction of SAM, the construction of CGE about china real Economy environment, and making the solution by programming on the EVIEWS system, at last ,making the analysis on the test of different policy. So, the whole jobs of me in this thesis focus on follows fields:the first part is making a collecting commend of the research on CGE application,the second part is making a detail on the equation of CGE model,the third is construting a SAM which including 28 section basing on the I-O table of 2002,the four part is making the final solution by programming on EVIEWS system and making policy analysis.