Changes In Rmb Exchange Rate Trend Study

Now the exchange rate frequently changed, which caused the various countries' government, the financial organ, the enterprises as well as academic circles' universal attention. With the enhancement of Chinese economic opening rate and the dependency degree, the RMB exchange rate becomes the focal point, which related the domestic and foreign economies. As the short exchange rate, which is mostly influenced by the operated and the congenial factor. The economical significance that exchange rate change represents is not remarkable. But research on the long exchange rate, it is restricted by the economy growth, price level and so on. Therefore its performance contains the extremely profound economical significance; also it is the national macroscopic economy booming indicator.This paper take the RMB exchange rate factors as a master line, based on the data analysis and the historical review, draws up to analyze the function mechanism of the RMB exchange rate factor using the exchange rate theory and demonstration diagnosis. The writer pondered the RMB exchange rate changing situation and tendency, bring forward that firstly should review the lay of the basic complication which influenced the RMB exchange rate. Grasps the exchange rate change from the internal cause aspect, we will analyze the RMB exchange rate changing situation and tendency by combining the external RMB exchange rate mechanism environment.The exchange rate change is the first sign of the exchange rate fundamental research. From the middle ages, the overseas scholars start research on the basic stratification of the exchange rate changement, thus impelled the exchange rate theory unceasing progress. Along with the development of the modern exchange rate fundamental research, the analysis of the exchange rate changement become combined the exchange rate mechanism, using the standard analysis and the demonstration diagnosis to take into account. Through the review of RMB exchange rate changing course, we found that the intention of Chinese economy attempts to joint with the international economy in its developing process through the reform of RMB exchange rate system. Regarding the short-term change situation of RMB exchange rate, we mainly review the the impacts Of the money supply, interest rate fair price, the speculative factors .etc. to the RMB exchange rate and use the model analysis to judge it. The long-term tendency and the choice of exchange rate system in the future are also the key points in our study. We forcast the the RMB exchange rate tendency in medium and long-term using the international payment balance theory and the currency principle theory, at the same time, we gave some advice to perfect the RMB exchange rate system. At the end of the aticle, the influence of the change of the RMB exchange rate to the economy of our country and industry was discussed. This also manifests the significance of the change of RMB exchange rate...