Study On The Impact Of RMB Appreciation On Import And Export Trade Of Agricultural Products In Sichuan Province

Because of the pressure from the international and the domestic, the RMB appreciation’s tendency is getting more and more obvious. Our country agricultural product import-export trade receives the stern challenge. As one of the massive trade surplus and foreign exchange reserve origins, the agricultural product import and export is the important component of our country international trade, and it has the very important function to our country national economy’s sustained development. In the last few years, the Chinese agriculture has been the focal point in the world.Sichuan province has large quantity in the agricultural products, while small quantities in the agricultural products import and export. The quantity of import and export present growth trend on totally, and the amplitude of the import quantity fluctuations is big, and the performances are all active trade balance status, the species of export product are few, and the pig export gradually becomes the uppermost export product. Come up to see the agricultural products composing of export, its staple products species is pig, raw silk, wine, vegetable, feather and so on. Therefore, under the economical situation that RMB continuously appreciation and international financial crisis, agricultural products import and export in Sichuan province face a lot of questions and challenges.The paper can be divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction including this article research background, significance, primary coverage, method and the innovation spots.The second chapter combs the related literature, including exchange rate fluctuation’s influence to trade payment and to the agricultural product.The third chapter talks about the rationale. There are many mature theories about the exchange rate fluctuation’s influence to a country agricultural product trade, but also many newest researches.The fourth chapter analyses the realistic foundation of the RMB appreciation’s influence to Sichuan agricultural product import and export in detail, providing some realistic foundations for the later empirical analysis.The fifth Chapter is empirical analysis. This chapter presents detailed empirical estimates steps and methods from unit root to cointegration test of data. Structure break in data generation process is introduced for unit root test, OLS estimation and cointegration test.The sixth chapter is the basic conclusion and policy suggestion. This chapter makes a summary to the full text first, and then proposes some policy suggestions concerning some questions.With the research which was formerly related compares, the main innovations of this article has the following several points:First, this article selects the Sichuan agricultural product import-export trade as the object of study, and unifies the actual situation of the Sichuan agricultural product trade to analyze the action mechanism about the exchange rate fluctuation’s influence to the agricultural product trade; Second, sample data selection; Third, this article carries on the theory analysis a about the exchange rate fluctuation’s influence to a country agricultural product trade in recent several years.