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Ahp-svr-based Project Risk Evaluation And Decision Making Support System Research And Development

Posted on:2009-03-29Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:L ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2199360245456221Subject:Pattern Recognition and Intelligent Systems
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Project risk assessment is a critical activity adopted in project risk management to prevent risks and enhance the success rate of project through risk tracking and control. But so far it is a big challenge for project managers and experts to combine their expertise with intelligent technology to assess project risk due to insufficient risk related data. Thus structural software implementations are rarely viewed been undertaken to visualize project risks and provide decision making. Based on this, we developed a novel project risk assessment decision support system (PRADSS) with excellent interaction. The paper discussed design, implementation and evaluation of the prototype system, main contributions are as follows:1. Propose and construct the AHP-SVR project risk assessment model. Considering current contributes to the project risk assessment and to fill the research gaps mentioned before, we proposed AHP model to construct project risk hierarchy which is fundamental to the analysis of project risks and then derive the key features and use these to assess the overall risk for enterprises have limited data resource. But because AHP-approach assessment is complex and lack of accumulating expert knowledge, another very useful tool-support vector regression for dealing with this is proposed.2. Implementation of PRADSS. The prototype system consists of project metrics database, dynamic risk index system, evaluation model choosing and man-machine interaction which is very suitable for enterprises that have very limited data resources for quantitative project risk assessment and helpful in assisting decision making to reduce negative risk factors.3. Case study. A case of IT project risk identification is studied to show the feasibility of PRADSS which can identify significant risk factors and the overall risk. The assessment risk is consistent with the expected result from Appendix C which provides great feasibility and efficiency.In brief, PRADSS is a less complex, less resource intensive approach to the problem of project risk assessment which could greatly improve decision-making capability and very suitable for those enterprises that have very limited data resources for quantitative project risk evaluation and management.
Keywords/Search Tags:Project risk assessment, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Support vector Regression, Intelligent technique, Decision Support System
PDF Full Text Request
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