Research On Modeling For Intelligent Decision Support Systems Of Risk Management In Construction Project

With the diversified and personalized development of computer and internet technology, real estate in China becomes more and more normalized, and the market of real estate gets more and more active. Enterprises begin to look for new technology methods to support decisions of enterprises, which can improve the ability and capacity to survive and to meet an emergency in the intense market competition.The rapid process of market makes the stage of investing decision occupy the biggest risk in the whole cycle of constructing project, which means the result of work during the decision stage will directly lead to the success or the failure of the project in total. The application of Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) starts late fairly. Although some enterprises set up systems of database; it is rarely to see the effects of them, what's more it is hardly to find the application of them. In this dissertation, the author proposes the mode of Investment Risk Management Strategy (IRMS) based on IDSS, which is the new attempt of IRMS of construction project. In terms of reality and theory, it is meaningful to study the combination of IDSS and IRMS. The research work states below.Based on the research background above, the dissertation firstly presents the current research situation of index system of IRMS of construction project both in China and in other countries in general. Then, it analyzes the index system components of IRMS through literature review, and at the same time each index is designed carefully. Thirdly, the working principles of each section in IDSS and the working relations amongst each base are deeply researched. Next, the dissertation demonstrates that the application of BP net of artificial neural network can prove that it is possible to avoid risk through intelligent system for the purpose of obtain the best investing income. The followings are the research findings and conclusions of this dissertation through analyzing and research.(1) In the whole cycle of the constructing project, the risks in the constructing stage have been researched in a subtle way. What I get is that the possible savings of costs is so tiny, but there are many deficiencies during the pre-decision stage. Many enterprises even do not notice the great importance of pre-decision risks, and the difficulties and uncertainties of the development of the work make the research stay in an empty status. According to the situation, the dissertation raises the concept of IRMS.(2) The normal risk management mainly focuses on the indexes of financial affairs ranging from profits to incomes and costs, and only very few real estate enterprises put it to the direction of strategy. The dissertation mainly analyzes the strategy risks of constructing project in order to help senior management staff make decisions of strategy.(3) There are few enterprises that set up database system, but intelligent system is still not put into practical application. The dissertation establishes the index system of IRMS of constructing project through reviewing many literatures. Through the intelligent mode of reasoning, it is predictable in the practical work of decision making in constructing project.(4) In terms of the real estate enterprises, the researches of structuring information-based IRMS based on IDSS are almost empty, and the old idea of making a decision in accordance with qualifications and seniority is still very common in many real estate enterprises. The dissertation tries to construct the basic structures of IRSS based on IDSS taking consideration of the features of strategy risks of investment. According to the design requirements of project risks'indexes, the dissertation solves the issue of decision-making reasoning of risk management and the exhibits the effects of neural network in aid of decision-making through the reasoning structures and implementing methods of IRSS based on IDSS along with the application of reasoning method and learning algorithm of neural network and the integration of inference engine. (5) According to the features of strategy decision-making risks of constructing project, the dissertation sets up the IRSS mode based on the neural network using the application of powerful nonlinear dynamic solving-problem ability of neural network in the arena of pre-decision making and predicting, and finds out the complicated objective disciplines amongst different elements of strategy risk decision-making through utilizing the powerful self-learning ability of neural network. In the predicting mode realizing of neural network, the dissertation designs and improve the BP network of risk management with the help of different functions of MATLAB neural network toolbox. The improved mode will achieve better predicted consequences.