Agricultural Listed Company's Financial Warning Model Research In Our Country

After China has joined the World Trade Organization, market economy is in the rapid development, and market dominant position has been established. The enterprise competition is day by day intense and the international management degree enhances unceasingly, resulting in the external business environment is complex and changeable, the survival and development of enterprises is faced with more and more risk. Agricultural listed company is more advanced form of a business organization with the agricultural enterprise developing to a certain extent, and is the capital of China's agricultural industry and the major channels under the WTO background to take part in international competition. Agricultural listed companies are meeting the reform and development opportunities, but also face more intense competition, facing new and greater risks and crises. By the end of 2006, 11 companies were special treatment in the 39 agricultural listed companies, at the same time, the operating profit and net income, operating activities generated net cash flows of 4 companies are negative, we can see that, agricultural listed companies in order to maintain long-term and steady development, must strengthen risk management and establish appropriate financial early warning system suitable for China's agricultural listed company.In the study of the financial warning, the majority of researchers have focused on whole listed companies, and few have paid attention to early warning of a specific industry. After studying at home and abroad advanced early warning theory, this paper will be the first to apply the financial early warning to agricultural enterprises in China. Choose all agricultural listed companies of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in 2006 as samples, in full consideration of profession characteristic, construct agricultural listed company's financial warning indicator system, and then choose 21 indicators from the solvency ability and profit ability etc 5 areas as the initial financial variables, screening 11 indicators through T tests, which exist major differences between the companies in the financial crisis and the normal, extract 7 principal factors through factor analysis, and then make Logistic regression analysis to 7 Principal factors, building suitable early warning model for agricultural listed company, and make model effects test of early warning and fitting test. Finally, choose 2 agricultural listed company's two year finance data at random, carry on the early warning analysis with the Logistic regression model and examine this model's long-term forecast effect.Empirical research shows that which affect the financial situation of our country's agricultural listed company is that profit ability factors,assets increased factors,the capacity to pay cash dividends,short-term solvency ability factors,sales increased capacity factors, the main financial indicators which affect its financial situation include: retirement assets yield, earnings per share, the total assets growth rate, operating cash flow per share, net assets per share, liquidity ratio, sales growth rate. The early warning model forecasts the overall 86.1 percent effect, and has a higher fitting degree, proving that the model has a high practical value, and makes a good judgement of agricultural listed company's financial situation, accordingly, as a powerful basis to take measures for enterprises. Thus, the early warning model of industry manifests the profession characteristic, practical strong, and can be used to forecast China's agricultural listed company's financial crisis, with a view to reducing the losses caused by corporate bankruptcies, and has strong practical significance.