Study Of Monitoring And Early Warning Of Urban Land Prices

Since the city land use system reform has deepened unceasingly in the 1980s, the use of the urban land from "free, unlimited time, does not have the flowing" to"paid, has the flowing by a set time" , it has carried on the collection state-owned land working cost gradually (tax), cities state-owned land right of use's selling with transfers, reforms and commercial housing development. Along with land paid use system reform unceasingly thorough, our country land market construction grew out of nothing, has made the considerable progress from the spot to the area, the land appears day by day in the urban construction and the socio-economic development function and the value comes out. The land supplied into the new time country macroeconomic regulation and control the important means that the soil-rent value has also become the land market operation important weight and the price judgment tool, therefore, established the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system to become the necessity, Guiyang completed the city land classification grade, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system's establishment work, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system's establishment in 2001, to grasp the urban land market price level, managed the urban land, protect land market ,which have provided the important basis.This article unifies the domestic and foreign urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system present situation, profits from the real estate market monitor early warning theory and the method, in the last few years the fellow scholars to the land market early warning research's mentality's foundation, has carried on certain practice utilization to the Guiyang town center city land price market monitor and the early warning. The article altogether divides into six parts: the introduction part multianalysed research's background and the significance, summaried the domestic and foreign real estate monitor early warning theory and the technical research tendency; The second part has carried on the analysis to the urban soil-rent value management condition; The third part is this article core research results' foundation to the urban soil-rent value monitor early warning's method and the process; The fourth part has conducted the empirical study take the Guiyang town center city as the example to the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor early warning, and has carried on the elaboration to the future soil-rent value trend situation; The fifth part according to the Guiyang town center city land market's present situation and the early warning result, The sixth part is the conclusion part.The article to the Guiyang town center city soil-rent value monitor early warning's empirical study result is:①At present Guiyang town center city soil-rent value level basic reasonable, adapts with its socio-economic development level②Thesoil-rent value level will continue to climb with steady steps, in the short-term will not have the big police sentiment to appear.