City Office Market, Warning Study

While economy's developing, the tertiary industry's ratio continually moves upward, and the development degree of modern service industry becomes the symbol of production level. So the core of economy and society comes into office buildings from factories. As an important part of real estate sector, office market is regarded as the indicator to show the fluctuation of a city's economy. And the constant adjustment and optimization of industrial structure provides broad development prospect. But at the same time, competition is even more fierce,the issue follows more and more.For example, some areas have high vacancy rate of office buildings; rents and price are growing too fast;real estate companies have not carefully analyzed the market before investment.So the establishment of early-warning system of office market has great theoretical and practical significance.This article is based on the theory of early-warning theory of macroeconomic and early-warning theory of real estate.Taking comprehensive simulation method as main line that early-warning system design, it researched to bulid the structure of early-warning model of office buildings.First of all, the characteristics of the operation of office market was analyzed based on theoretical analysis. Second, to use the early-warning theory of real estate for reference, and combined with characteristics of office market, the early-warning system of office market is set up according to the early-warning indexes of office market and the value section and weight of every index.Finaly,taking office market of hangzhou for example,the paper uses data of two year, delimitates the early-warning, confirms weight of indicators,and makes a quantitative analysis on both single warning index and comprehensive warning indexes about office market in hangzhou. It can point out whether the whole office market in hangzhou works healthily, and propose follow-up recommendations.The early-warning system of office market which is established in the paper,has a certain feasibility. It also has great significance to the practice of earl-warning, but still needs to be improved.