Exports And Economic Growth Empirical Analysis

The publication of Adam Smith's An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations In 1776 bring us The Absolute Advantage Theory, and then, research on the relation between export and economy growth start, from Absolute Advantage Theory to Comparative Advantage Theory, Classical Economics to New Economics and New Trade theory. The research on the relation of export and economy growth changed from pure normative research to empirical research, actually achieve a lot, but the views are different or even conflict with each other in different times and different genres. After fully study the predecessors' Empirical research on the relation, and try to analyze further about the relation by taking the reference to domestic & overseas empirical research methods.Starting from the review of the related theories and empirical analyze of export and economy, this paper mainly research on the co-integration test and relation of export quantity and GDP series. The research methods mainly include the placidity test analyze, co-integration test of time-series analyze and cause and effect test, cross section data regressive analyze. The main subjects are selected in a proper and reasonable way, and take the regressive analyze after they collected.Introducing the relation of foreign trade and economy growth, and summarize and expatiate the study of the long term relation of export and economy growth from macro market development status, metrical analyze technologies.The conclusions got from the above methods include: Both of the export and GDP haven't the placidity within the time-series test after use the unit root test method; Export contribute to the economy growth is just found in a little countries, it is unreasonable to pursuit export oriented policy blindly, tested by the cause and effect of export and economy growth; The contribution given by export is decline gradually as time pass by,but we cannot abandon the t orientation economic growth thoroughly because export's contribution to economic growth reduces gradually, this article considered that we should insist the neutral trade policy.