Empirical Analysis, The Listed Company's Share Price Growth Potential

This thesis researched on the relationship between the financial data of listed companies and the increase range of their shares price in the next year. It studied the relative numbers of growth potential of shares price among the listed companies base on their annual report instead of the common way in which we calculate the absolute value of listed companies' base on their financial data. Via the studying of those relative numbers and the contrasting among all listed companies, the investment value of those listed companies has been crystallized.The page was based upon the open information of annual report, and by means of the standard multivariate statistical analysis methods, such as cluster analysis, Independent-Sample T Test and fact analysis, it derived a CTF moudel and a CTF index to express the growth potential of shares price in the ensuing year for all listed companies. After that, it demonstrate the CTF moudel and index among moer than 200 listed companies, grounding on their annual data in 2005 and 2006 and the growth of shares price in the next year, and verify its validity and reliability by contrast risk and average revenue with other investment models.The study also expounded the defect when we evaluate the investment risk by contrasting the variance directly between different investment portfolios, and developed a new module to assess the return over expected and investment risk through analysis of dispersion.In the demonstration proof-test, the average growth of shares price of the diversified portfolio of stocks constructed through CTF module is at least 1.5 times as large as all sample companies'. At the same time, it is superior also both on the over expected return and investment risk than those portfolios constructed via familiar finance indicators such as P/E, Net Asset Value per Share and so on. In addition, experimental analyses showed CTF index indicated the one which got the highest annual increase in the next year (3/31/2006-3/31/2007).Finally, this paper put forward some suggestions for the government, the management of listed company and investors.