Research On Potential Economic Growth Rate Of China

In 2015,China's GDP per capita was close to 8,000 U.S.dollars,becoming a medium-upper-income economy.The shock of the international financial crisis and the changes in the economic environment at home and abroad have made it difficult to be sustainable for China's existing extensive economic development mode oriented by exporting labor-intensive products.The economic growth rate of China has gradually declined.In 2014,Xi Jinping first proposed the "new normal",which means that economic growth will shift from rapid growth to medium-rapid growth,namely an economic slowdown.At present,both academics and practitioners basically agree on the economic slowdown.However,academics and even decision-making departments of government have different views on the reasons for the slowdown of Chinese economy at present.Some scholars think that the reason for China's economic slowdown is the cyclical "lack of demand",and some scholars think that the reason for the slowdown of China's economy is the drop in the potential growth rate of China's economy.At the meantime,the current changes in the economic situation at home and abroad have caused the general concern of all sectors of our society about the growth trend of our economy in the future.In order to achieve the goal of "13th Five-Year Plan" and "building a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020" which proposed by the Central Government,our economy needs to maintain a relatively stable high-speed growth in the near future.However,economic circles are still in dispute over whether China's economy will maintain a high growth rate in the future at the time when China's economy continues to decline.To understand clearly the nature of the current economic slowdown in China,to have a reasonable answer to the controversy over the future trend of economic growth of our country,we must know how much the potential growth rate of China's economy in the future will be.This article attempts to answer this question.Most of the existing studies have studied China's potential economic growth rate from a single point of view,and mainly use the production function method to conduct research from the perspective of aggregate supply.This article studies China's potential economic growth in details from the three perspectives of aggregate supply,equilibrium of aggregate supply and demand,general equilibrium:Chapter 3 builds a time-varying elastic production function based on the perspective of aggregate supply,including reform,structural adjustments,capacity utilization,etc.in the analysis framework of economic growth to estimate china's potential economic growth rate;Chapter 4,based on the perspective of short-term supply-demand equilibrium,the"triangular model" is used to build the state space model and the Kalman filter algorithm is used to measure China's time-varying natural unemployment rate,and then use the Okun law to measure the potential output and potential growth rate of China's economy;Chapter 5 builds a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to measure China's potential growth rate based on a general equilibrium perspective.Then the article summarizes the measurement results from the above different perspectives.Finally,the paper puts forward policy recommendations on Chinese economy.The study of three different perspectives on the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy all shows that the main reason for the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy since 2010 is the decline in the potential growth rate and the potential growth rate in China will continue to decline in the future.Therefore,the current macroeconomic regulation and control of China's economy should be shifted from the demand-side management to the supply-side management.We need to carry out structural reforms from the supply side and strive to increase the potential growth rate so that the Chinese economy will form an L-shaped recovery.