Economic Imbalances Monetary Policy Analysis And Control Mode Selection

The market's problem is a manifestation of the contradictions between supply and demand. Recalling the 2007 and looking forward to 2008, in the past few years, the three issues still exist, the total economic aspects of the conflict gradually appeared from the deep water. Overall , the problems are mainly reflected in the following four aspects: First, the balance of payments surplus is still growing . Exports still maintained a strong momentum, thus current account surplus is increasing, and foreign exchange reserves also have been increasing . When the foreign capital flow into our market constantly, they enhance the appreciation of the renminbi and increase the pressure on RMB appreciation; Second, the obvious signs of inflation, CPI keep a record high. Market prices and the house prices rise sharply. Inflenced by the international oil market prices, food production and domestic oil production, a shortage of pigs, and other sources of cyclical factors, some of the means of production and consumer prices, especially pork, edible oil, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas rise more, and promote the market prices; Third, the growth rate of investment is too fast. Recalling that in 2007 investment growth, its characteristics can be summarized as "stable overall, the local active." The overall smooth performance is embodyed that the urban investment growth rate fluctuation is mild the whole year, and the growth is about 26%, not fluctuate up and down more than 1 percentage point; total fixed asset investment grew 24.8 percent , the growth rate is slightly higher than last year by 0.9 percentage point, the gap is less than a percentage point. Active in local, on the one hand, high energy-consuming industries in the first quarter showed a clear trend of investment rebound, and then it became to decline obviously after the national macro-control policies and measures intervene; On the other hand, investment in real estate continued to rise, the growth rate speed up significantly, Setting up a new record of 34.2 percent in the current round of economic cycle; Fourth, the bubble problem in the capital market is serious. From the beginning of the end of 2005, China's stock market began a magnificent bull market, stock index risen from 1,000 points to 6,000 points, share prices jumped to double that number, of stock has been high, and the price is still higher . However, these issues are ultimately linked to excess liquidity and. 2007, this word has also become a very popular word, many scholars and experts talking about the current economic problems, we should talk about excess liquidity.This article begins with the excess liquidity in the first part, and then analyze the current policy, monetary policy ,at last, made recommendations on the regulation and control. First of all, it made the current excess liquidity performance as the beginning in the first part analysis. The main targets include the analysis of M2 and the two major assets in the stock and real estate market analysis, followed by excess liquidity in the global background, proposes that the direct cause of China's excess liquidity is the balance of payments surplus in the two-and slow the appreciation of the yuan, International factors are important incentives. Then this article pointed that a result of globalization and China's cheap labor make China maintain a long-term economic growth, export growth, leading to balance of payments surplus, the excess liquidity,and so on. The final part conclude that these phenomena are produced by deep-seated structural economic contradictions. Excess liquidity is just a performance of these conflicts, only those deep-seated contradictions gradually eased, for example, to straighten out the price factor, the degree of self innovation, we can raise China's healthy economic development in order to enter orbit.In the fourth part ,based on the analysis .It makes some suggestions about the policy. In the long run, promoting economic structural adjustment, the change of the mode of economic development, and the reform of factors of production prices is to address the fundamental imbalance in the current economic measures, eventually, achieve the national economy Fast and good development.