Sichuan Industrial Economic Operation Prediction System

Industry is the principal part of national economy, monitoring and prediction of industrial economy operation is the premise for maintaining the continuous, healthy, stable and rapid development. At present, our country has established a nationwide industrial economy operation monitoring system. Local goverment also established a special investigation group, which did a lot of research with abundant achievements in aspect of economic monitoring and prediction. This thesis analyzed characteristics and laws of the industrial economy operation, designed a general WEB based industrial economic forecast system by previous studies on industrial economy prediction theory and self-organizing data mining algorithm.Firstly, this thesis expounds the background, purpose, meaning and main content of the research.Secondly, this thesis introduces the research category, principles, logical system and method of predication, compares the artificial neural network with self-organizing data mining algorithm, chose GMDH algorithm of the self-organizing data mining to build forcast model based on local industrial economy operation characteristics finally. This thesis describes the basic ideas and classification of GMDH algorithm, and applied GMDH model to predication of main economic index of industrial, proved the reasonable and scientific of using GMDH algorithm in prediction of industrial economy.Finally, based on the analysis of the basic functional requirements of the forecast system, introduces the system structure and software component of local industrial economy forecast system, describes the design of the core function module and database, and uses the Industrial value added of Sichuan Province to verify the accuracy and reliability about data management functions and forecasting applications of prediction system of industrial economy.Industrial economic forecasting is a complex and long-term work, need to make further research.