Chengdu Cycle In Real Estate Research

At present, real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries in most regions of China and the vicissitude of it holds a great impact on China's macro economy. As an important component of macro economy, periodic fluctuations exist in real estate market and the analysis of the fluctuations has a great significance. The analysis of periodic fluctuations in the housing market of Chengdu in this text would not only enriches the analysis of periodic fluctuations of China's housing market but also be conducive to the steady and healthy development of real estate market in practice.At present, the analysis of periodic fluctuations of real estate focuses on qualitative research and a large part of the research is only within the industry, quantitative research which combines other effect factors lacks. At first, this text will introduce some economic cycle theories and in combination with that real estate periodic fluctuations theory as well as major external and internal factors which effect the periodic fluctuations of real estate would be introduced. General process of real estate periodic fluctuation-two stages of expansion and shrink would be analyzed and effect mechanism of concerned factors upon real estate market would be discussed later. Based on index figures that are closely related to periodic fluctuations of Chengdu real estate market from 1995 to 2008, in analyzing periodic fluctuations of that, SPSS software and multiple regression equation are combined to analyze main effect factors of real estate periodic fluctuations, correlation coefficient between concerned factors and real estate cycle is calculated; and then qualitative analysis is conducted; and then quantitative analysis is used in adopting diffusion index and composite index of multi-criteria techniques; and ARMA Model is applied to forecast future trend of Chengdu real estate market. In the end, characteristics and predictions of Chengdu real estate periodic fluctuations are reached in combining various analytical approaches and models, and suggestions and measures are proposed to adjust periodic fluctuations of Chengdu real estate market.