Analysis Of Real Estate Cycle And Its Influencing Factors In Shanxi Province

As a basic industry in China,the real estate industry is able to take the lead in reflecting the development trend of China's national economy.Due to the natural property and economic characteristics of real estate,from the perspective of economics,the government has a strong intervention in the real estate market,and the real estate market will show a trend of periodic fluctuations.Mastering the real estate cycle fluctuation pattern is of reference value to the timing and intensity of policy making.This paper studies the operation of the real estate industry in Shanxi Province from the first quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2018,and identifies the influential factors of the cycle fluctuation of the real estate industry in Shanxi Province,which is of positive significance for promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate industry in Shanxi Province.Study in this paper,the real estate cycle,Shanxi Province,the real estate investment,real estate production in Shanxi Province,10 indexes of real estate transactions,real estate finance,based on a quarter of 2007 to 2018 in the second quarter of the data,through the principal component analysis(PCA),software application SPSS23.0 draw in the first quarter of 2007 to 2018 in the second quarter for a total of 46 quarterly data set of real estate cycle index,calculated according to the data sets in Shanxi Province real estate cycle index.Based on real estate cycle index data sets in Shanxi,the application of HP filter method to eliminate its long-term trend,get the cycle of real estate cycle index data sets in Shanxi describe the wave graph,analysis the real estate cycle,Shanxi Province in 2007 1 quarter to 2018 in the second quarter has experienced three rounds complete cycles,each cycle lasts 37 months,according to the trend,cycle is currently in the phase of the expansion of the real estate a new cycle of Shanxi Province.Continue to study on this basis,this paper,the further analysis of the influence factors of real estate cycle fluctuation in Shanxi Province by applying Eviews9.0 software operation,GDP,money supply,the urbanization rate has a significant influence real estate cycle fluctuation in Shanxi Province,and it is concluded that the three indexes to rank the importance of the influence of the real estate cycle fluctuation,Shanxi Province,the urbanization rate influence real estate cycle fluctuation in Shanxi Province is the largest,followed by the money supply and GDP.Based on the abo ve research results,the paper puts forward corresponding policy Suggestions for promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry in Shanxi Province from the aspects of promoting the new-type urbanization construction in Shanxi Province,accelerating the economic transformation,flexibly using the monetary policy and the corresponding counter-cyclical regulation and control strategy.