Research On The Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation And Its Pre-warning Index System

Since the 1980's Chinese reformation and opening up, especially after the establishment of Socialism Market Economy in 1992, the real estate industry has made great progress. It strides forward increasingly to the mature industrialization economy and plays a more and more important role in the national economy. As we observe the development of the real estate, we can see that its development is unsteady from the beginning, and it displays the characteristics of fluctuation. In the 1990's, the range of its fluctuation was more distinct, and the periodical characteristic of fluctuation was more and more clear. In the recent years, the increasing of the investment of real estate was too fast in some cities and the price rise rapidly, some phenomena such as "over-heated" and "structural problem" appeared in the real estate market, and this would lead to serious market risks. Therefore, the establishment of the real estate market pre-warning index system is a significant topic in the present real estate market.Generally, this thesis includes two parts. The first part studies primarily the economic cycle of Chinese real estate industry. Firstly it analyses the four phases of the real estate economic cycle and their each characters. Then, it uses the Spectrum-Analysis Method (SAM) to determine the length of the economic cycle of the real estate industry for the first time. Compared with the other ways of mensuration of the economic cycle, the SAM shows some of its advantages. Secondly, it combines the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis to probe the factors which influence the fluctuation of the real estate market. These factors include the economic factors such as the national economic fluctuation, the supply and demand relation of real estate market and the fluctuation of real estate investment, the political factors and the mental factors. The quantitative analysis shows that the fluctuation of national economy is an important factor in the real estate market economic cycle.In the second part, firstly, based on the theory of economic cycle, the thesis analyses the set-up of the real estate market pre-warning index system, and introduces the four steps to establish the system. Then, it chooses the Changsha city as example, picks up 16 pre-warning indexes, uses statistic methods to quantify the Changsha real estate market state into 5 pre-warning zones, applies the AHP method to determine each index's weight in the system, set up the Changsha real estate market pre-warningindex system, and testifies the state of changsha real estate market in the year of 2003.