| After several hundred years of development, modern life insurance industry has come to a new level. According to statistical figures of SIGMA issued by Swiss Reinsurance Co. ltd., the life insurance premium income amounted to 1,236.6 billion US dollars in 1995, 57.7% of the world's insurance premium income. Life insurance industry plays a more and more important role in the economy, politics and social life of every country. China life insurance industry had a later starting point, but developed very rapidly. The life insurance premium income came to 87.21 billion RMB in 1999. The healthy development of China life insurance industry is essential to the economic reform, especially to the financial system reform and the maturity of capital market. The development of life insurance industry is influenced by many factors. One is deflation. Deflation is a classic economic phenomenon occurring in the economic recession in the economic cycle. What annoyed most countries in the world since 20th century is inflation, not deflation. Economist (Feb 20th, 1999) pointed out that although the old enemy-inflation-seemed to be overcome with indignation, a new, maybe more dangerous enemy-deflation-is coming. On the one hand, deflation makes a production reduction and economic recession. On the other hand, deflation harms life insurance industry a lot. So how to reduce the damage of deflation to the life insurance industry is a difficult problem faced by the world's life insurance industry. So does China. After several years of puzzle of inflation, China life insurance industry is challenged by deflation. This makes us do research and try to find solution from a new angle.The dissertation is about to find solution, under the risk analysis of life insurance industry, to alleviate the influence of deflation on life insurance industry from institution perfection, marketing and investment. The dissertation uses supply and demand theory, cost and benefit theory, modern investment theory, actuarial mathematics and mortality table to make a research.The dissertation is divided into 4 chapters.Chapter 1 is the risk analysis of life insurance industry. Firstly, it expounds the characteristics and function of life insurance industry, making a preparation of risk analysis. Secondly, it concerns the risk analysis when there is no inflation or deflation, mainly about operation risk and asset/liability management risk. Lastly it comes the risk analysis of life insurance industry under deflation.Chapter 2 is an explanation of deflation and the economic situation of China and the world under deflation. According to the different comprehension of deflation, the chapter makes a comparison and reaches a definition that is generally accepted. Then it analyzes the deflation phenomenon of China as well as the world. At last it introduces some anti-deflation policies of banking, finance and revenue.Chapter 3 is the analysis of how deflation impacts on the life insurance industry. Firstly, it shows the reason from existing insurance policies' characteristics why China life insurance industry is liable to the influence of deflation. Then it makes an analysis of the impact of deflation on the supply and demand of life insurance industry, using actuarial mathematics and mortality table.Chapter 4 is a suggestion of anti-deflation measures. At first it puts forward a strategy adjustment of life insurance industry. Then it describes how to resist against the impact of deflation from institution perfection, marketing and investment. The institution perfection includes the operation scale adjustment, resources disposal perfection, cost control and service perfection. The marketing strategy concerns retaining existing policyholder and policy reform. The investment strategy is how to make insurance funds safer and more profitable from the views of the regulatory body and the life insurance companies.Although deflation brings some negative influence to the economics and life insurance industry, China life insurance industry has a brilliant... |
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