| As is known to all, a country's foreign trade can produce a great impact on both internal industry and economic development. Under the circumstances of the more and more obvious international economic integration, foreign trade has become the focus that every country pays close attention to. As an important part of foreign trade, export pattern changes with internal economic development stage and level. The change usually deputies the country's industrialization degree, industrial structure level ,as well as the ability to participate in international market. Compared to developed countries, developing countries' economy relies more on export, because their proportion of export earning in national income is usually higher than developed countries'. Being the largest developing country in the world, based on high-speed economic growth, China's export trade has gained an unprecedented development after innovation. But behind the high-speed rise of China's export, there are still many problems and contradictions that were exposed thoroughly accompanied by Asian Financial Crisis. China's export growth rate has dropped remarkably since the outbreak of Asian Financial Crisis and it has attracted people's attention. As we know, joining WTO will surely exert a great influence on China's export. Not having completely eliminated Asian Financial Crisis's adverse effect, China's export will be confronted with a new opportunity and challenge. Under the special economic circumstances, it is great significant for keeping the steady and healthy development of China's export and economy to study the major factors related to China's export increase and to analyze their action mechanism. This thesis is an effort to study the underlying factors related to China's export increase in a deep and systematic way. It focuses on testing the link of China's export and economic growth, studying the statistical model of China's export increase, as well as internal industrial structure and regional economy's effect on China's export. This thesis consists of five chapters, each chapter's contents and structures are as follows: Chapter one introduces in detail China's export development and changes after reform from quantity, structure and comparative advantage respectively. The study of China's export structure reveals following facts: China has changed its export market pattern from relying solely on developing countries' demand to developed countries' demand. Although China upgraded exports from primary goods to manufactures early in the late eighties, now she still exports mainly machining with low additional value. So it is urgent to realize the second transformation of China's export structure as soon as possible, that is, to export finished machining and high-additional value commodities mainly. In addition, section three analyzes the revealed comparative advantage of China's export and compares it with that of main areas and countries in Asia. Chapter two studies the link of China's export and economic growth. Firstly, it explains the reason why China has such a high export interdependence coefficient. Secondly, after a brief introduction on the theories and inspection method, section three makes a Granger Cause Test on the link of export and economic growth. Conclusion is drawn from it that there exists a one-way cause from China's export to economic growth. Thirdly, it calculates export 's contribution rate to economic growth by using variance decomposition. Finally, further research on the function of export promoting economic growth certificates that China's export accelerates economic growth mainly through export division's self expansion. The link of export and non-export division is not strong. Chapter three is an effort to explore China's export increase model. It consists of three parts. Part one induces the underlying factors related to China's export increase and proves their action mechanism and mutual relationship between them and China's export. In terms of the thought of asymp... |
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