China's Macroeconomic Forecast For Inspection And Analysis

The definition of Forecasting is, on the basis of the research on the history and current situation, to presume the further development of certain things regarding objective laws. Originating from the process of producing and exchanging goods, Economic forecasting is initiated to meet demands of formulating domestic economic policies and managing business and enterprises. Due to the inevitable errors occurring in the process of economic forecasting, testing becomes the final step of the whole process. Serving as a bridge for transmitting information, it continuously abstracts necessary information, for mode revising, from current modes and feeds it back to the current mode so as to promote the forecasting accuracy. Tests of forecast accuracy can be either mode-based or model-free. With the further development of socialist economic reform, China is attaching more and more importance to economic forecasting. From 1992, forecasting analysis has been undertaken in the Economic Blue Book published annually. On the basis of the research papers (1992-2000) of the various units in the Economic Blue Book, this paper analyzes the diversified economic figures of the national macro-economy, summarizes the nine-year economic forecasting experience and tries to explore the internal laws inside the economic system.