Transportation In China And The Relationship Between The National Economy Statistical Research

Transportation industry, as a basic subsystem of social economy, acts as the bridge and linkage among all the industries, all the regions and all the social departments. All the practice shows that transportation industry has become the indispensable requirement that can activate the national economy and improve people's living standards. With the social improvement and market economy development, the reliance that social economy levying on the transportation becomes bigger and bigger. So the transportation industry has become the preconditions which can improve the social economy, extend the social reproduction and harmonize all the national departments.On the base of the economic theory both from international and domestic, this paper primarily tests the law that the transportation industry itself acts and their relationship with national economy. Under the nature of these economic data, we can construct the economic model to forecast or test all the dependability and feasibility of some economic theory. It also can provide some quantitative advice for all grades of states government and enterprises, especially for the transportation department. According to a lot of research both from international and domestic, economic data acts as unit root process, So the economic index which have no correlation with each other will demonstrate marked correlativity (known as suprious regression). We should see whether the economic phenomenon has relation with others in the regression model, otherwise the result will not properly reflect the relationship between the economic index. The traditional methods of times series can not be used for the unit root process. But economic phenomenon has long term equilibria relationship between each other, so we can seek cointegration for the multi-unit root process. If they have cointegration relationship, there must be long term equilibrium among them while other factors act as short-term impact. The transportation industry, as antecedency of national economy, its status is very important. This paper researches the relationship between the transportation industry and national economy with method of Granger test that is usually used by foreign economic experts.The contents of this paper are listed as following:Chapter 1 We illustrates the crucial position of transportation industry lies in national economy and its effect.Chapter2 According to the character of the transportation industry, we select some transportation index such as GDP, Freight, Traffic Freight, Ton-kilometers Passenger, Traffic Passenger-kilometers, GDP Of Transportation Industry for the unit root testing with methods of DF, PP ,ADF and so on.Chapter 3 We build a long-term equilibrium model between the transportation industry and the national economy with cointegration vector, searching for the long term economic index.Chapter 4 We build a causality model between the transportation industry and the national economy, so does on the relationship between the national economy and national railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation traffic.Chapter 5 We analyze and evaluate the results received from the models built before.The principal contribution in this paper is the introduction of the Cointegration and the Granger causal test method. All the operation is principally processed by the Statistic soft SPSS, Eviews etc.