| Faced with the impact of South-eastern Asia financial crisis, employment pressure brought about by the strategical reorganization of state-owned enterprises, successive decline of economic growth and negative growth of the index of retail commodities′ price, the central government of China carried out the expansive fiscal policy in 1998. By means of enlarging budget expenditure, the expansive fiscal policy has increased the effective demand and promoted the growth of economy. Currently, the main characteristic of the expansive fiscal policy in our country is the simultaneous increase of revenue and fiscal expenditures . According to the development in economic theories associated particularly with John Maynard Keynes, it is accepted that the effect of taxtation increasement on economic growth acts against the counterpart of the fiscal expenditure′s increase. So while the effect of carrying out the expansive fiscal policy is obvious, the disadvantages also come to light. Confronted with this condition, the public voice for the adjustment to the current expansive fiscal policy has been heard, but no unanimous opinion has been available yet. Because such dispute has immediate influence on the government′s choice of polices in its macroscopical regulation of economy and society, it will bring important realistic significance to explore factual macroscopical tax burden and find the tax multiplier effect on economy so as to perfect the expansive fiscal policy by coordinating the tax policy with the positive fiscal policy.Apart from the preface, the thesis includes three parts.Part One includes three segments. In this part, the effect of tax in the expansive fiscal policy is analyzed theoretically. The first segment gives research on the generality of the expansive fiscal policy. Above all, the western theory of supply and demand is introduced in order to explicate the theoretical foundation on which the expansive fiscal policy is based.Then three patterns of the expansive fiscal policy are generalized. In light of the western theory of demand administration, the expansive fiscal policy has three patterns: I. Increasing the public financial expenditure and reducing the revenue. II. Stabilizing public expenditure in conjuction with the great drop of tax. III. Increasing the public financial expenditure in combination with the tax growth. Furthermore, it points out that the pattern of the expansive fiscal policy in our country is the third one discussed previously. The second segment gives a deep analysis about the tax multiplier and multiplier effect by which it is demonstrated theoretically that the variation of revenue will give rise to a multiplier change of national income to the opposite direction. The astringency of infinite sequence is utilized to derive the formula of tax multiplier and multiplier effect,which profoundly shows the formative mechanism of tax multiplier effect. At the same time, the process of derivation reflects that the tax policy can regulate microeconomics by deepening to every ring-joint of economic operation chain. Moreover, we can find that the tax multiplier effect has the characteristic of asymmetry, marginal degression, and chronicity. So the economic effect of tax should be widely applied in the course of macroscopical economic regulation. Certainly, on account of the policy risk, the government should have a rational limitation when applying the tax multiplier effect to regulate economic operation. Part Two analyses the economic effect of macroscopical tax burden quantitatively. This part includes three segments. The first segment explores the state of heavy-calibre macroscopical taxation burden from three aspects such as taxation elasticity, distributive framework of national income and international comparison, and comes to the conclusion that the level of tax burden is excessively high. Especially, the speedup of macroscopical taxation burden is too rapid after the government carries out the expansive fiscal policy. The second segmentquantitatively anal... |
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