The Application Of Early Warning System - Thailand

With developing of the financial globalization, every country gradually connects with each other closely, and the currency crisis that has become the vital threatens to the developing countries happened frequently in those countries. For China, after entering the WTO, China would fulfill the obligation and responsibility on the agreement. If Chinese financial venture rested on the argument and the theoretical analysis beforetirae, now the impact of venture is really possible. China implements the flexible exchange rate system under management, actually a fixed exchange rate system, and the capital item control and has never happened the crisis up to the present, at the same time; we have not the prerequisite historical data, so it isn't possible to define the crisis.At first, this paper reviews the traditional currency crisis theories and the research on the early warning system; thereby try to search for the crisis root and some important early warning indicator, and then basing on those and the Kaminsky's early warning system of the currency crisis, I analyze statistically the Thailand monthly data from 1992 to 2000, seek the threshold of every early warning indicator, the adjusted noise-signal ratio and the early warning synthesis indicator, forecast the possibility of Thailand happening the crisis in the coming 12 month with the month data in 2001, and finally conclude that Thailand would not happen the crisis in the coming 12 month.