The Government Crisis Predict Situation, Problems And Solutions In Public Crisis Management

The process of public crisis dealing has four steps according to the importance:early warning,decision-making,control and reconstruction. China is currently in transformation period of the process of reform and opening up and modernization.The frequent braking out of public crisis has caused great dangerous and losses for people's property and life. The public crisis such as Sichuan Earthquake,2008 ice disaster in south China, the broken down of Zhuzhou bridge and The SIRS epidemic situation make Chinese government realize the importance and urgency to build the advance research and estimation system for public crisis arrangement. But there is a trend in the public crisis management field to talk more about the decision-making mechanism and the importance of the advance estimation for crisis in such a system has been ignored. As a start point, the advance estimation for crisis has a crucial meaning for the whole system. Mr. Barnard, the founder of the social system school of modern west administrative theory pointed out in his the function of management staff that the discrimination for the fact provide evidence for decision. The advance estimation for crisis is the measurement of the crisis manager staff for all elements happened or may happen in the public crisis and provide strength support for the correct decision. So it is our job to make deep theory research for the advance estimation for the purpose to build relative system and improve the government's efficiency of crisis management.This thesis tried to expand the research field of the administration of early warning of public crisis from the research viewpoint of advance forecast and estimation for crisis early warning for the purpose to solute the difficulty to forecast and estimate current crisis through the search of the connection between the theory of public crisis administration and advance forecast and estimation. Finally, the foundation for the advance estimation for crisis are discussed from the way of improve the main body's quality, establish information and social security system, creating a new administrative culture and the condition for the estimation with the purpose to provide conference for the government to deal with public crisis more efficiently.