| In the course of economic development, it is relative to make a balance, but is absolute to be an unbalance. The uneven quality is shown as the fluctuation in the economic evolution, i.e. economic cycle or economic circulation. As everyone knows, the impact on economic development is enormous in economic cycle, therefore how to set up a monitoring-warning system of economic developments effectively becomes an important goal for macro economic management.Through selecting some economic indicators in advance, analyzing the statistical materials by statistics, calculating the states of economical operation, the macro economic monitoring-warning system is putting forward the appropriate demarcation line of macro adjustments and controls, and carrying on prediction the prosperous situation of economy, etc. So, setting up the monitoring-warning system of macro economy can enable the economic administrative departments not only to be aware of the pulse of economical operation in time accurately, but also make judgments on the developing trend in the future, which aims at taking measures to carry on macroeconomic controls appropriately, and developing economy steadily and high-efficiently.Setting up monitoring-warning system can play three following functions:Appraising the present macro economical operation correctly; Predicting the developing trend of the macro economy in the future accurately; Reflecting the effect of macro economic regulation and control in time, etc.The software of macro economic monitoring-warning system is developed for the purpose of knowing the macro economy developing status and rules of fluctuating, obtaining the macro economical operating status and tendency in the future fully, accurately and promptly; and analyzing the information of the tendency on economic prosperity, carrying on macro economic situation analysis, in addition to provide available tools for the administrative departments of the macro economy and research institutions on measuring prosperous circulation.I participated in the Government Economic Operation Management Information System (GEOMIS) design and developed two pieces of modules. During this course, I invested a large amount of time and energy, studied and grasped about abundant knowledge on statistics and macro economy. This thesis is the summary of my studying gains and developing experience in this systematic course.Generally, this thesis is divided into six chapters: Chapter one introduces the establishment and the main contents and meaning of Government Economical Operation Manage Information System (GEOMIS).Chapter two expounds the theory of economic fluctuation and economic cycle. This chapter arises the economic fluctuation from economy improvement at first, then the description in economic cycle, and then recommends explaining various kinds of theories of economic cycle, including the theories of inadequate consumption, external factors, inside factor, and innovative theory, currency factors theory and investment cycle theory, etc. Chapter three expounds the basic theory of economy monitoring and pre-warning. This chapter recommends the basic meaning of the macro economy monitoring and pre-warning at first, namely the macro economy monitoring-warning system. The system, through selecting some economic indicator in advance, analyzing the statistical materials by statistics, calculating the states of economical operation, is putting forward the appropriate demarcation line of macro adjustments and controls, and carrying on prediction the prosperous situation of economy, etc. So, setting up the monitoring-warning system of macro economy not only can make the economic administrative department hold the pulse of economical operation in time, accurately , can also be made and judges to the development trend in future, so that takes measures to carry on macro adjustments and controls appropriately, in order to develop economy steady and high-efficient.Chapter four introduces the fundamental techniques of setting up macro economy... |
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