China's Economic Cycle Research

Business cycle is economy undulation that alternates by economy expansion and economy decline.After 19th centuary,economists nave constructed many theories on business cycle.And they have explained the reason and found the solvement of economy undulation .Among them there are some typical theories ,for example the theory of capitilism business cycle ,of under-consumption or over-deposit,of unration of economy structure,of cycles of invention,of pure crisis of currency,of political business cycle.And since the People' s Repubulic of China constructed ,it also has 10 business cycles,and the 10th is taking shape.The character of them is that before opening-up the rate of economy fast raised to economy peak and fast fell down to valley, after opening-up , it proceeded at high rate and low fell down.And except for proceeding character,every business cycle has its own traits .The 1* business cycle lasted five years.It had two peaks.The reason was the undulation of investment and industry,and impact of agriculture shortage.The 2nd had one peak. The peak took shape at short time .The distance of peak and valley was very big.The rate was -27.3% at valley.The reason was undulation of investment ,the strenthenment of agriculture shortage.The 3ri had one peak.The economy was just restored at the former part of business cycle,but was destroyed by political compain at the latter part and it fell into valley.The 4th lasted four years.The rate was destined by political situation.The undulation was spurred by investment.The 5th was just like 4th.The main cause of 6tt was still undulation of investment ,but the reform factor began to act on.The main reason of 7"* was wave of investment .The demand of consumption began to effect economy.The ijipact of reform played more and more role in economy undulation.The 8th had many reasons.The main reason was undulation of total demand .The shortage of agriculture and foundmental industry strenghened.The 9th lasted 9 years.The rate of economy raised high and fell slowly down to valley.The financial undulation became important factor .The situation of forward economy played great role in economy wave.But why China economy undulates so frequently?There are seven factors.The 1st is that economy police often change . The 2nd is that the scale of investment often passes the economy endurance of China.The 3* is that economy effacacy is low.The 4th is that economy stucture is not reasonable. The 5th is that after opening-up ,financial police plays more and more role in economy undulation.The 6th is economy system and its effect. The 7th is the mistakes of economy stratigy and directing thoughts of economy,and so son.