| There is a close correlation between the real estate market and national economic sustained development and financial market robust. The rational investment decision is not only a powerful means to promote economic growth but also provide a sound basis to the constant, stable and healthy economic development. Especially in China, suffering from the problem of insufficient domestic demand, Chinese government is trying to develop real estate market, improve the prosperity of relative industry, draw up the domestic demand in order to keeping a continuous, stable and healthy developing trend, which cause the theorists and industrialists' concern. The problem is how to analyze the real estate developing trend under the background of current macroeconomic adjustment and control. In the process of domestic demand promotion, dose the macroeconomic adjustment policy reach its goal? If the answer is no, how to gear its policy to the goal? All these issues, which are correlative with the real estate industry development and investment behavior in the process of promoting domestic demand, are the contents and subjects of this thesis by quantitative analysis.To the government, this thesis tries to find the micro-fundaments of macroeconomic adjustment and control in order to provide a reference to the government economic policies by researching the real estate developers' reasonable investment decision. Traditional decision-making rule, such as discounting cash flow, has intrinsic defects—ignoring the investment uncertainty and administrative flexibility. Therefore, it may mislead the decision-maker and result in myopia. Borrowing the conception of financial option, taking kinds of opportunities during investment as options, researchers have fabricated the investment decision rule of real option that skillfully grasps the uncertainty to the irreversible investment and administrative flexibilities. The major methodology is empirical analysis. The basic way lies in dectecting the effects of government macroeconomic policies to the real estate investment decision by means of real options. As far as real estate market is concerned, it has features of high hazard, high return, regional characteristics and dramatic investment fluctuation. Classic real option literature often assumes that the value of a project follows a Geometric Brownian process. But the author thinks it is more suitable to combine the process with a Poisson process to illustrate the important shock of government policies. In this thesis, there are some meaningful results. Because of the uncertainty in the macroeconomic uncertainty, the investment trigger value is higher than that of NPV, which shows the traditional rule, which ignores the effects of uncertainty, may lead to abrupt behavior. Due to the policies shock, the investment trigger is smaller than the classic one but also bigger than the NPV. On the other hand, the relatively higher trigger value reflects the requirement of risk compensation of investment hazard. The empirical evidence shows that the decrease in price is stronger than that of the trigger value by the government policies shock. But one should be alert of the fact that the lasting higher price over its intrinsic value may mean real estate foam. From this point, a reasonable investment trigger value is not only the corporation's decision-making dependent factor, but also the micro-basis of government macroeconomic adjustment and control. In this thesis, there are some features as follow:1, Based on the massive present literatures, this thesis improves the quantities model. That is, by introducing of the variable to measure the government policies, the author analyzes the effects of the government macroeconomic adjustment and control policies. 2, in this thesis, the author adjust the classic Geometric Brownian process by combining it a Poisson process.3, the thesis is one of the literatures which occupy the forward position in researching the empirical model in real estate industry in China. |
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