| The thesis, by using modern economic analysis tools, studies our country's fictitious economic risk systematically and structures one supervisory frame of our country's fictitious economic risk on the basis of referring supervisory experience of the international fictitious economic risk. The thesis is divided into five parts in all.First part (chapter one) studies the law of fictitious economy emphatically that takes place and evolves while defining fictitious economy, reveals its six characteristics, which are different from real economy: (1) of disguise (2) of instability (3) of high mobility (4) of high risk (5) of parasitism (6) of periodicity. On this basis, draws the fictitious economic risk concept.Second part (chapter two) investigates our country's fictitious economic risk in current situation at first, realizes that the risk of the financial system and capital market risk are the main risks that the fictitious economy of our country faces at present. Then analyzes, when the development of fictitious economy deviates from real economy, it will hinder the development of real economy, even bring great negative effect and destructive damage on it. So, we need to study hard the law that fictitious economy moves and develops, take precautions against and avoid its negative influence as soon as possible.The third part (chapter three) analyzes the inducement that the fictitious economic risk forms, investigates it in detail from three respects of basic relation of fictitious economy and real economy, fictitious economy system, market mechanism.First of all, by the look of basic relation factor of fictitious economy and real economy, mainly: (1) the structure of real economy system is distorted (2) the systematic relation of fictitious economy and real economy is out-of-balance.Secondly, by the look of fictitious economy system factor, mainly: management system that the fictitious economy system is rigid and backward.Finally, by the look of market factor, mainly: (1) the confidence of market is lost, produce "the trust crisis" (2) international fictitious economy risk is "infected ".The fourth part (chapter four) investigates the international experience of fictitious economic risk management, defines the historical trend that the fictitious economic risk is supervised, see the difference. The fifth part (the fifth, sixth chapter) structures one frame that supervises our country's fictitious economy risk according to the actual conditions of our country. This frame is made up of two parts:The first part, set up the early warning mechanism of the fictitious economy systematic risk of our country.First of all, construct one early warning of scientific index system that goes ahead of the rest. Then, establish our country's fictitious economic risk early warning and measure model and analyze the real example. Finally, use this model to evaluate our country's fictitious economic risk state at present.The conclusion is: Our country has not reached " the critical point " of the fictitious economy systematic risk yet at present and the fictitious economy systematic risk will not break out in a short time. Our country will not cause the financial crisis either. But should watch out for the constant rising of the fictitious economic risk. For this reason, must supervise our country's fictitious economic risk and make its constant decline until the controllable safe state. The second part, propose the countermeasure and suggestion that " two steps on foot " supervises the fictitious economy systematic risk of our country. The first step, reduce the fictitious economy systematic risk of our country, analyze and prove from three respects concretely that the basic relation of fictitious economy and real economy, the system of fictitious economy, market mechanism:The main argument of basic relation of fictitious economy and real economy have: (1) Structural adjustment and optimization of real economy (2) Pay close attention to the balance of fictitious assets and physical assets of macro econo... |
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