Analysis Of The Economic Effects Of China's National Debt

Recently, influenced by all kinds of factors, the speed of our country's economic development had slowed down a little so that it caused many problems. The effects of the monetary policy and other government's financial policies is not obvious meanwhile the government bonds began to play a more and more important role in the economic development: it raised abundant money needed by the construction, on the other hand the operational effects of the government bonds have been noticed by the government policy-maker to a great degree, thus they are regarded as an important policy instrument . In order to fully bring into play the effect of the government bonds, from the view of the statistics the author consider the issue of the government bonds. Firstly, the author recount the function of the government bonds, the relationship of the government bonds, financial and monetary policies. Secondly, the author review the history of the issue of the government bonds. Thirdly, the author carry through the augment Dick-Fuller Test on some relative objective variable .On the basis above, the writer carry through the Granger Causality Test between the issue of the government bonds and investment, consumption, export and employment. Lastly, we draw a conclusion of that the issue of the government bonds causes negative effect on export causes less obvious on consumption. In the third part of the article, we make a vector autoregressive model about the issue of the government bonds, gross domestic products and price and analyses the result. The result shows itself as the issue of the government bonds impacts on gross domestic products great and lastly while on price fluctuantly. As a result, we give some advise on the issue of the government bonds.