Based On Cash Flow Financial Crisis Warning Study

In order to solve the existing problem that lies in the current financial warning methods and that the invalidation caused by financial information distortion, the thesis made a method-which provided a series of cash flow prediction index, to warn financial crisis based on the cash flow information. The thesis also made out a demonstration that supplied references to the study of financial crisis warning in our country.Firstly, by way of summarizing the current study situation about financial crisis warning and the analysis of the current financial crisis warning system, the thesis points out that financial crisis is the debt crisis caused by disability in repaying a debt. This situation always takes place when there is not enough cash flow.Secondly, the thesis makes a deep analysis about financial crisis warning models, such as LP model, Z model and so on, and points out the existing problems, especially the problem of distorted financial information that affects the prediction veracity. Also the thesis studies the reason of the distortion from the view of economics so that provides the theory warrant to this problem. The thesis makes a thoroughly study on the production process of financial information and the reason for it's distortion.Thirdly, with the study of the correlation factors that effect the financial crisis, the thesis indicates that the indexes should characterized with sensitivity, prediction, nearly relevancy with the crisis and maneuverability. The thesis proposes that financial crisis warning system should be based on indexes such as earning quality, net gross quality and the rate of current liabilities insurance. All this indexes are nearly related to the cash flow information. The thesis puts forward two methods to predict the financial crisis-the method of single index comparison and the method of multi-classification. Then the thesis proves the effective of the warning model through the analysis of the financial data of Yinguangxia Company, Yiankeji Company and Lantiangufen Company.Finally, using the financial data of Jinzhougang Company, the thesis put the financial warning model based on cash flow into practice.