Listed Companies In Financial Distress Early Warning Based On Cash Flow

The stock market in China has been developing quickly since ten years ago. Facing the flourish stock market, china securities regulatory commission and stock investors are expecting that they can analysis reasonably financial statement of listed company and catch hold of changes in stock market. The purpose of this dissertation is to construct financial crisis models based on cash flow by analyzing three industries.Overseas research showed that financial crisis model based on cash flow could forecast financial crisis. Due to no the research of this field in china, I want to provide a reasonable analysis method. My dissertation constructs three industrial models based on cash flow, including chemical industry, engine industry and real estate. By analyzing the difference of nineteen ratios based on cash between financial crisis companies and not financial crisis companies, I deduce three Fisher Linear Analysis Models and Canonical models. I got concludes that in engine field, The error differentiation ratio of the first year before crises is 3.3 and the error ration of the second year is 11.7 in and the error ration of the third year is 16.7; in real estate , the error ratio is 3.3 in the first year ,and 10 in the second year; chemistry industry is 0 in the first year and the error ratio of the second year is 9.375, the forecast ratio of the third year is 12.9. In chemistry industry, the right ratio is the highest.