Chery Short-term Auto Demand Forecast Analysis

As the first step to lay down a good management policy, exact forecast is very important not only for the enterprises to purchase distribute and transport the material but also for reducing the stock. During the period of internship in the biggest seller of the Saic Cherry automobile Co. Ltd, the author discovered that the company has the problems such as supply lagging of spare parts, the increase of spare parts stock and car, beside, the customer service of low quality due to the improper forecast for the demand as other automobile manufacturers of large size.During the theoretical probe of logistics demand, demand forecast principle, effect factor, forecast method, an estimate system of determining the constants is set up to make change cherry's short-range forecast.The key to model is defining the soothing constant for the average and for the trend. Previously, these constant was defined by experience or try one by one, improve the model's inexact, increase the work. The Saic Cherry is analyze the domestic market, an estimate system of determining the constants is set up according to the developing characteristics of the domestic automobile market and the effect of two constants. Ultimately, two models forecasting results are controlled and analyzed.During setting up an estimate system of determining the constants and choosing the demand model, the exactitude of the Saic Cherry automobile Co. Ltd short-range demand forecast would be improved, the automobile selling would have an reference forecast model.