International Container Liner Shipping Market Research And Forecasting

Container Liner Transport Market is greatly influenced by external uncertain factors. The risk of Container Shipping is very high, but the profit is rather low. Besides, the barrier against entry into market is high, in which competition is fierce. Since its establishment in the late 1970s, China's Shipping Fleets have been expanding rapidly. Now China has developed into a big International Container Shipping Country.This paper makes a supply-demand analysis on China's International Container Liner Transport Market. By describing the characteristics of supply and demand in this market qualitatively, and analyzing the supply of China's International Container Liner Transport Market, the motivations and reasons for container ship's development tendency to large-size and the management method of China's International Liner Shipping Companies, the author finds out the relevant factors in the market demand by means of quantitative analysis and discusses the cause of imbalance between supply and demand in the market, thus finds out factors affecting the market's supply and demand. All the above-mentioned work can offer a fundamental evidence for studying the law of China's International Container Liner Transport Market.On the basis of the above analysis, regarding Container Traffic Handled by Professional Waterway Transport Sector as the market demand measurement quotas, and processing the original data on the basis of pre-matching Curve Trend Model, the author establishes Second Degree Curve Model and GM(1,1) which is revised two times. Then the writer adopts Second Degree Curve Model and the revised GM(1,1) to set up a Combined Forecasting Model of demand, which accurately predicts Container Traffic Handled by Professional Waterway Transport Sector in the following several years.Then author takes China Containerized Freight Index(CCFI) as research object to set up Time Series Multiplication Model by which the author finds out Secular Trend, Seasonal Fluctuation, Cyclical Movement and Irregular Variation of the price in China's International Container Liner Transport Market, and digs out the economic, political, social, science and technology and other factors influencing and changing the transportation price.Accordingly, the author makes use of Box-Jenkins's method to set up a ARIMA (Autoregressive-integrated-moving average) Model estimating CCFI. The author alsomakes an attempt to match a Seasonal ARIMA Model, and diagnoses, compares and evaluates the foregoing two models. After the previous work, the author makes the accurate short-term forecast of CCFI by using the optimized model selected from the foregoing two models.According to the results from the previous analysis and forecast, the author summarizes the new situation of China's International Container Liner Transport Market in 2004: Transportation capability and transportation load will have a greater increase, compared with the year 2003. Transportation price keeps on rising steadily. Contradiction between supply and demand will be alleviated. The container ship's development tendency to large-size will continue. More Foreign Container Transport Companies will enter China's International Container Liner Transport Market, and Container Transport Companies will accelerate merger or joint-management. Finally, the author put forward several simple suggestions to China's International Liner Transport Companies.Chen Lijiang (Industrial Economics) Directed by Yu Siqin...