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International Container Liner Routes Freight System Dynamics

Posted on:2005-04-24Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360125961138Subject:Transportation planning and management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The research on shipping freight is a subject with a rich content but a rather complicated one. There are variable factors that influence freight with irregular variations and the factors are inter-related and hard to describe by fix quantities, therefore, it is very difficult to research on the freight. Undoubtedly, the research on freight by fix quantities is of great significance and theoretical value.Because the transport system is dynamic, complicated, reactive, long-term and periodic, it is suitable for the application of system dynamics. When it concerns the problem of container liner freight for particular, which has a great number of factors, a complex makeup and dramatic variations, system dynamics can describe, simulate and forecast, therefore carry out effective analysis and research on the formation of liner freight, factors, tendencies and variation features.Starting with the systematic thought, this research chose container liner routes as an example. By utilizing Vensim PLE, the special software of system dynamics and by establishing a system dynamics model of container liner freight, the research made efforts to find the inter-influencing and inter-restricting dynamic relations between various factors. Through simulation, the conclusions that policy makers care about have been drawn and in a certain time period, these conclusions will serve as an important support of the freight policy making.Firstly, this research analyzed the conflicts and problems of the system. By making clear the objectives and requirements of the research and the problems to be solved, this research discussed the relationship between the system and the environment, carried out the group qualitative analysis and systematic boundary confirmation, elementarily found out the relationship between various factors and the freight, analyzed the major conflicts and variables, inside and outside variables, input figures and policy variables.Secondly, analyze the structure of the system. The emphasis of dealing with the system information and analyzing the reactive mechanism of the system is to analyze the reactive relation between the whole and part of the system, partitionthe levels and sub-structures of the system, analyze the relations between variables and loops, and estimate the dominant loops and structures as well as their attributes. The factors influencing freight was divided into several parts according to their categories to make up the actual system.Thirdly, through the structure analysis and consequence analysis of the system, flow charts and basic tree models have been set up to make certain the level and rate variable system, and thus to establish the system dynamics model and verify and evaluate the model.Finally, on the basis of the model, simulation was done with the actual data and some valuable trend results have been got, which were the foundation of the freight developing forecast and decision-making.This research completed mainly the following tasks:Analyzed the chief outside factors and basic inside makeup elements of the international container liner freight system; established the systematic dynamics model of the liner freight, and employed the model to carry out historical simulation and devebping forecast; with the results of the model and the actual condition of the variation of the freight, comprehensively analyzed the formation of the freight and variation mechanism.In accordance with the simulation results, some conclusions were drawn:The conflict between supply and demand on the container liner routes will still widely exist and will not ease in a long time in the future. The "freight war" to squeeze into the new shipping routes to expand the market share will be launched in a certain time in the future and shipping companies will still have difficulty in taking consistent actions on freight making. On the whole, liner industry can gain a narrow profit and it is in a period of turbulence, readjustment and combination, it still has a bright future.
Keywords/Search Tags:container liner route, freight, system dynamics, model, simulation
PDF Full Text Request
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