Future Energy Supply And Demand Analysis In Fujian Province

Being a kind of inevitable essential material foundation of society, resource supports the development of society & economy. Therefore, country or region governments all give the concern of the height to local energy development. A scientific and reasonable energy developmental strategy, which can powerfully supports the local development of society & economy, otherwise, it will do harm to the development of the local social economy. To make a scientific and reasonable energy developmental strategy is so important that we must base on the reliable judgment and analyses of the situation of energy. This paper will model and predict the demand and supply of the energy of Fujian Province in the future, and provides the reference for energy strategy planning in Fujian Province's 'ELEVEN-FIVE' planning.This paper models and predicts the consumption and supply of Fujian Energy respectively. First, using GM to model and predict the consumption and supply of Fujian, and proved that GM is effective and feasible according to the proof-test so that we can continue to predict the consumption and supply in the period in 2004~2010. Second, using BP ANN to model and predict the consumption and supply of Fujian, and proved that ANN is also effective and feasible according to the proof-test so that we can continue to predict the consumption and supply in the period in 2004~2010. In forecasting practice, different methods will be used to solve a problem, and those methods may provide different useful information about the problem, therefore, we can use combined forecasting model to synthesize these information and improve the precision of forecasting. Therefore, we use combined forecasting model to combine the two model and prove that it really improve the accurate of the predict model and can predict the period of 2004~2010. In the end, author use the data calculated by combined forecasting model to analyze the gap between the demand and supply, and give some advises to the Fujian Province energy strategy in the period of 'Eleven-Five'planning.