Yantian Port, Shenzhen Port District, Four Engineering Construction Scale Study

The national economy has turned to keep steady, rapid and healthy development. The import and export annual growth of foreign trade is over 15%, almost double of what the world trade achieved at the corresponding period. The annual growth rate of nation's container port throughput is over 30%. As a leading port, Shenzhen port has gained the annual growth rate of 70%. Yantian port area, as one of the most part of Shenzhen port, accounts for over 50% of the total figure of the throughput of Shenzhen port. The project of Yantian third phase, which is expected to be accomplished at the year of 2005, started its construction at the year of 2000, and. Four appropriated container berths constitute this project, each of one has the ability to accept the sixth generation of container ship. The total design annual container throughput of the first, second and third phase of Yantian harbor area is 3.7 million TEU. But in the year of 2002, at which the third phase project was not to be finished, Yantian harbor area had gained the annual container throughput of 4.181 million TEU. So even if the project of third phase of Yantian harbor area will be accomplished in advance, the container throughput capacity of Yantian port area will still have a big gap. The Yantian harbor area will continue to remain its over load operation status. So in order to adapt to the rapid growth of container throughput, the demand for the project of the fourth phase of Yantian harbor is necessary.This paper is divided into three parts: 1. This paper is to find out the main problem via the analysis of the two ordinary prediction techniques. 2. According to the characters of the generation of the port container throughput, this paper is to give the prediction of the container throughput of Yantian harbor area in the planed years via the prediction technique of hinterland generation. 3. According to the investigation of the practical situation of depth water along the Yantian harbor area and the arriving shipping lines and ship type of Yantian harbor area in recent years, the research of the developing trend of world ship building, combined with characters (ship type is to be larger; alliance in management; transport in main line;) which the container shipping industry has turned out to be, this paper is to give the prediction of the container throughput in the planed years and make certain on the construction scale of the project of the fourth phase of Yantian harbor area.