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Based On Artificial Neural Network Of The Chinese Currency Demand Modeling And Forecasting,

Posted on:2006-01-03Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360152485915Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In the modern and economic society, the effects of regulation andcontrol by finance are outstanding day by day. For long time, how toemulate economy circulates to build up the monetary demand model, isthe hot issue in the circle of financial theories. Lots of experts andscholars have built up various economic models in different historicalperiods to stabilize currency and develop economy. With our country'seconomy moving forward market economy, to build up the actualmonetary demand model of our country has become an important topicfor financial theories workers of our country. Since the reform andopening-up to the outside world started in 1978, especially after People'sBank of China started to perform as the function of National CentralBank in 1984, great changes have taken place in the financial system ofour country. The macro adjustment means of the National Central Bank isalso from directly to indirectly, and target of monetary policy of NationalCentral Bank is to " keep the stability of the currency value, and promotewith economy growth". But the monetary demand model becomes morecomplicated with the increasing of economy variables and the influenceof the random factors, and therefore, to strengthen application studies ofthe monetary demand having a foothold in the concrete state of the nationof China seems to be very urgent and necessary. In recent years, lots of local experts and scholars have written manyessays of theories and demonstration about monetary demand, but theyadopt mostly traditional econometric models in the quantitative analysis.However as we know, the macroeconomic system is a very complicatedsystem, with existing extensively nonlinearity, time-varying volatility andthe indetermination function relations. Various kinds of macroeconomicmodels that set up on the basis of econometrics theory, is mostly linearmodels. The linear model manifests its defect gradually while playing agreat role. It can hardly hold nonlinearity of the macroeconomic system.Especially at present our country is at the stage of socialist marketeconomy system awaiting reform and perfection. Some factors are verydifficult to reflect in the linear model, even can be reflected under somesituations, explain extent is not enough. In this case, it forces people toseek a kind of non-linear tool and carry on economic modeling, thehighly approaching nonlinearity ability of the artificial neural networkhas offered a brand-new way for macroeconomic analysis. The artificialneural network developed rapidly is to be applied to not only numerousprojects fields such as pattern-recognition, signal-analysis andautomatic-control, but also the field of economic forecasting with itsoutstanding ability in non-linear modeling of many variables. Though theartificial neural network researched in the field of economic forecasting isstill at primary stage, and its actually predicted ability is still a dispute.But as many evidences have already indicated, artificial neural networkmodel relative to tradition and statistical forecast model has uniquesuperiority of the non-linear economic relation and prediction of thenon-linear economic course. Because of this, under the background that Central Bank strengthensthe monetary policy , this text used the method of the artificial neuralnetwork, adopted BP algorithm, constructed a rational, measurablemonetary demand model, and according to the economic data in the pastten years of China, predicted monetary demand after calculating throughthe number value of the model, got in touch with practice of the monetarypolicy closely under the objective demand of macroeconomicmanagement, put forward some policy recommendations. This text is divided into four chapters altogether, the structure ofevery chapter and basic content are as follows: Chapter one --Theory summary of the monetary demand. The monetary demand theory is the center of the whole monetaryeconomic theory, and an important component of the macroeconomictheory too, meanwhile, it is the basis of that the monetary authoritiesimplement the macr...
Keywords/Search Tags:monetary demand, artificial neural network, Nonlinearity, monetary policy
PDF Full Text Request
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