Forecasts Of Electricity Demand In China

It has become a hot topic that electricity demand is tense in 2004. This paper differs from the domestic and international study on energy-consuming in the past and uses the level and smooth method of two times, the elastic coefficient of electricity and the newest founding of Dynamic Econometrics -Co-integration and Error Correct Model (ECM) to forecast electricity demand of China (2000-2006). Mean-while, this paper makes use of Granger causality of ECM to test the direction of the causality between economic growth and electricity consumption, The empirical result shows:1.There is one-direction Granger causality between China's economic growth and electricity consumption. Electricity consumption is Granger causality of the economic growth shortly, Granger causality that economy rises to electricity consumption but does not exist It offers the rational explanation for economic phenomenon that China exists at present2.Because limitation of electricity elasticity method, the prediction result of it is the worst. The method only fit to predict medium and long-term electricity demand or to short-term correct The prediction result of level and smooth method of two times is better than electricity elasticity method. But this trend prediction reflects some trend prediction. Then it fit to short-term predict.3.The prediction result of co-integration and error correct model is obviously better than others. So this paper analyzes the relationship between electricity demand and effecting factors. This method can distinguish electricity demand long-term balanced relation of variable of model, fluctuate a short time and balanced impact on short-term fluctuation for a long time, draw electric long-term balanced relation of demand.4.Shortly, the development of the heavy industry is an important factor ofinfluencing the electricity demand. On long terms, the adjustment of the industrial structure has brought the enormous impact to electricity demand. Because of our country's huge population base, population remains the important influence factor of China's electricity demand. Price of electricity if being the same, expectancy produce the effect of the price to electricity demand, have a little effect on electricity demand shortly.In order to prevent future electricity shortage at the same time, we put forward to setting up the early warning system of electricity, adopting the price of electricity of timesharing in a short time, adjusting industrial structure especially structure inside the industrial products and promoting style of economic increase from extensive to change to the intensive style so that we can improve economic growth quality and benefit, turn from the increase in GDP to "economic restructuring" developing with the balance . According to developing for a long time in power industry, energy-conservation will be a long-term strategy and policy of national economic development.